Middle East Energy Crisis, IEA Predicts Recovery Up to 2 Years

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are not only triggering surges in energy prices but also creating major disruptions that are expected to have long-term impacts on the global oil market.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, stated that recovery of energy production in the Middle East region will not happen quickly.

“Restoring the region’s energy supply to pre-crisis levels could take up to two years,” Birol said, quoted from Anadolu Agency on Friday (17/4/2026).

Global oil supplies fell sharply in March 2026.

Production dropped by 10.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 97 million bpd due to attacks on energy infrastructure and restrictions on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

This decline mainly came from OPEC+ countries, whose production fell by 9.4 million bpd monthly to 42.4 million bpd. Meanwhile, supplies from non-OPEC+ countries also decreased by 770,000 bpd.

One critical point in this crisis is the disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route that has long been the main connector for global energy trade.

The IEA report mentioned that oil flows through this route have dropped drastically.

In early April 2026, shipments were only around 3.8 million bpd, far below the normal level of more than 20 million bpd before the conflict.

This situation has triggered large-scale global supply disruptions and forced importing countries to seek alternative sources amid increasingly limited availability.

The massive supply disruption has driven oil prices to unprecedented levels.