Middle East Crisis Drives Gold Prices Higher, Oil Volatile – What Impact for Investors?

Jakarta – Global gold prices have reached $5,300 per troy ounce, or approximately Rp 82.68 million (at Rp 15,600 per US dollar), amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. The surge followed a combined air strike by the United States and Israel that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Previously, gold prices had even breached $5,500 per troy ounce before stabilising. Over the past year, gold has risen approximately 80 per cent, making it one of the largest rallies in safe-haven assets since the 2020 pandemic.

Reku analyst Fahmi Almuttaqin views the surge not merely as an emotional market response. “Conflict involving Iran directly has elevated demand for safe-haven assets to levels not seen in several years,” said Fahmi in a statement on Monday (2 March 2026). “Historically, whenever major disruptions occur at the Strait of Hormuz, commodity prices move far beyond market consensus projections.”

In the defence sector, rallies have been more aggressive. Lockheed Martin surged 2.5 per cent in a single day and rose approximately 32.4 per cent for the year to date. Northrop Grumman climbed 1.9 per cent daily and 23.7 per cent over the year.

RTX, producer of Patriot missiles and cruise missiles used in operations in Iran, also strengthened 2.5 per cent in a single session. The iShares US Aerospace & Defence ETF rose nearly 14 per cent for the year to date.

“The positive trend in the energy and defence sectors could potentially continue, given ongoing geopolitical tensions,” said Fahmi. “Investors already exposed to these sectors may need to consider stricter risk management given increasingly elevated valuations.”

“In such a scenario, central banks will find themselves in a difficult position, needing to support economic growth on one hand whilst controlling inflation on the other,” explained Fahmi. “This uncertainty could have broad and systemic implications for global financial markets.”