Middle East Conflict Remains Intense: Latest Forecasts for Global Oil Prices
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Global oil prices are poised to continue rising at the opening of trading on Monday, 15 March 2026, as the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran enters its third week.
According to Reuters, this situation is escalating risks to energy infrastructure and keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed amid the world’s largest supply disruptions.
United States President Donald Trump has even threatened to launch further attacks against Iran’s oil export facilities on Kharg Island. Tehran responded directly with a statement declaring its readiness to launch retaliatory strikes.
This escalation in tensions has driven Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices to surge sharply and shake global financial markets. Both contracts have recorded increases exceeding 40% throughout this month, reaching their highest levels since 2022.
The price increases occurred after United States and Israeli attacks on Iran prompted Tehran to halt shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway is a critical juncture through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies pass.
Trump has also urged several nations including China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom to deploy naval vessels to secure the shipping route. This step is considered essential to restore access to disrupted global energy supplies.
United States military forces have reportedly struck military targets on Kharg Island on Saturday. Iran responded by launching drones targeting a major oil terminal in the United Arab Emirates.
Analysts from JP Morgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, characterised this event as marking a new escalation in the Middle East conflict. Until now, according to them, oil infrastructure in the region had remained relatively safe from direct attacks.
Beyond the Fujairah oil terminal in the United Arab Emirates, analysts have also highlighted the Ras Tanura export terminal in Saudi Arabia and the Abqaiq oil processing facility as critically important and vulnerable energy points in the Gulf region. These three facilities are considered to play a major role in maintaining global oil supply stability.
Nevertheless, oil loading operations at the Fujairah terminal have reportedly resumed. The terminal, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, serves as an export route for approximately 1 million barrels per day of Murban crude oil belonging to the United Arab Emirates, equivalent to roughly 1% of global oil demand.
Energy distribution disruptions are estimated to have a significant impact on global oil supply. The International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil supply could fall by approximately 8 million barrels per day in March due to shipping disruptions.
Additionally, Middle Eastern oil producers have reportedly cut production by at least 10 million barrels per day. This condition is further tightening energy supply in the global market.
To dampen price surges, the IEA last week agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves of member nations. Japan even plans to begin releasing its oil reserves on Monday of this week.
On the diplomatic front, efforts to ease the conflict continue to reach an impasse. The Trump administration has reportedly rejected several calls from Middle Eastern allies to begin negotiations.
Iran has also affirmed that it will not consider a ceasefire whilst United States and Israeli attacks continue. This stance makes the prospect of the conflict ending in the near term increasingly remote.