Middle East Conflict Pressures Asia-Pacific Economy, ADB Projects 5.1 Percent Growth

Prospects for economic growth in the Asia and Pacific region indicate a slowdown over the next two years amid rising global uncertainties. In its latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026 report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects that economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific will stand at 5.1 percent in 2026 and 2027. This figure is lower than the previous year’s realised growth of 5.4 percent. In its report, quoted on Monday (13/4/2026), the ADB states that the conflict has “injected new uncertainty into an already fragile global landscape”, while disrupting supply chains and energy market stability. ADB President Masato Kanda assesses this situation as a major test for the sustainability of regional growth. “The economic recovery of developing countries in Asia and the Pacific faces a severe test,” Kanda explains. The ADB highlights that the Middle East conflict has the potential to disrupt global energy distribution routes, including oil and gas supplies that are a primary need for many Asian countries. The region is known as a net energy importer, making it highly sensitive to spikes in commodity prices. If the conflict persists longer, its impact on economic growth will become even more significant. In the worst-case scenario, the ADB estimates that the region could lose up to 1.3 percentage points of growth during the 2026–2027 period. This inflation surge could trigger tighter monetary policies in various countries, ultimately curbing consumption and investment. The ADB also notes that global uncertainties arising from the conflict exacerbate conditions previously pressured by other factors, including global economic slowdowns and geopolitical tensions. Despite facing external pressures, the Asia and Pacific region is assessed to still possess relatively strong economic resilience.