Middle East Conflict Escalation Rises, Airlines Wary of Jet Fuel Price Surge Risk

JAKARTA - Geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East are impacting the aviation industry, particularly through the rise in aircraft fuel or avtur prices. Aviation observer Gatot Rahardjo stated that the post-Lebaran return period would become a crucial point pressuring the performance of the national aviation industry. “The potential increase in avtur prices following the Lebaran period is expected to once again pressure the performance of the national aviation industry,” Gatot said in an official statement on Thursday (26/3/2026). “Uncertainty in global energy prices, particularly due to geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, is the main factor driving volatility in airlines’ operational costs,” he continued. Nevertheless, he stressed that efficiency efforts alone would not suffice without responsive policy support from regulators. According to him, the industry is currently in a vulnerable phase, where some airlines are still recording strained financial performance throughout 2025. This condition has the potential to trigger a domino effect if cost pressures, particularly from avtur, are not anticipated comprehensively. “Operational efficiency is indeed a necessity, but regulatory support is also crucial so that the industry still has room to survive and grow,” he said. “Without that, the risk of ongoing pressure on airlines’ performance will be even greater,” Gatot added. Starting 1 April 2026, fuel prices are projected to rise again following global trends. Gatot assessed that synergy is needed between industry players and regulators, including in maintaining a balance between airline business sustainability and fare affordability for the public. “Without coordinated anticipatory steps, the avtur price increase is feared to have broader impacts on the stability of the national aviation industry,” he asserted.