Megawati's presidency: A contrarian perspective

Megawati's presidency: A contrarian perspective

R. William Liddle, Professor of Political Science,
The Ohio State University, Ohio, U.S.A.

President Megawati Soekarnoputri, in office just over two
years, has not won universal praise for her leadership skills.
The pampered oldest child of national founding father Sukarno,
she is said to have little interest in either government or
politics. At cabinet meetings, according to insiders, she
listens passively to ministers' reports, allows little
discussion, and adjourns for lunch as quickly as possible.

She rarely appears in public, even during crises like the
terrorist bombings in Bali and Jakarta. In response to polls
showing her declining popularity and the possibility of defeat in
next year's presidential elections, she assures her advisers that
changes in campaign strategy are unnecessary.

Despite her weaknesses, which are legion by all accounts,
Megawati deserves a higher grade for her presidential
performance. In three critical policy areas -- the economy,
center-region relations, and relations with the United States --
she has done better than her recent predecessors.

Most important, she is the first president of Indonesia's
fledgling democracy to behave like a normal democratic
politician. As such, she is steering her country away from the
instability and unpredictability of the post-Soeharto transition
and toward a consolidated presidential-style democracy.

In economic policy, she appointed two widely-respected senior
officials, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Dorodjatun
Kuntjoro-Jakti and Finance Minister Boediono, and has by and
large allowed them to make key decisions.

In recent months, Ministers Dorodjatun and Boediono skilfully
finessed the politically controversial transition to independence
from the conditionality of the International Monetary Fund
imposed on the government since 1998.

These achievements compare favorably with those of her
immediate predecessor, Abdurrahman Wahid (1999-2001), whose
protectionist economics minister was constantly at war with the
IMF and World Bank.

Both institutions had earlier frozen relations with
Abdurrahman's predecessor, B. J. Habibie (1998-1999), who was
involved in a massive banking scandal.

Relations between the central and local governments are a
continuing problem in a developing country as large and diverse
as Indonesia. The pendulum has arguably swung too far from the
extreme centralism of Soeharto's authoritarian New Order (1966-
1998) toward autonomous districts and municipalities incapable of
coping with the new responsibilities handed to them by Habibie-
era laws.

Megawati's minister of home affairs is attempting to construct
a new balance that will maintain local autonomy but also preserve
the common legal and administrative foundation crucial for
restoring economic growth.

In two provinces, Aceh in the far northwest and and Papua in
the far southeast, dissidents are demanding independence. Unlike
president Habibie, who was startled by the regions' demands, and
president Abdurrahman, whose policies were indecisive and
contradictory, Megawati has reaffirmed and acted upon the
commitment to national unity shared by her father and President
Suharto.

She has sent troops to Aceh and moved forward with plans to
divide Papua into several provinces, despite a special autonomy
law that appears to guarantee Papua's integrity as a single
province. Both moves are popular with the Indonesian political
public, and may in fact be necessary steps to keep the nation-
state from disintegrating.

In foreign policy, Megawati has walked a fine line between
sensitivity to the demands of the world's only superpower and
domestic pressure to stand up to Leviathan. She is dependent on
the U.S. for investment, markets, and much else, but she is also
vulnerable to criticism from popular nationalist and religious
groups who oppose many aspects of American foreign policy.

Indeed, Megawati is herself a true-believing nationalist.
Since the Bali bombing in October 2002, her wake-up call,
security cooperation with the Bush Administration has much
improved.

Megawati's greatest contribution to her country, however, may
be in her very normalcy as a working politician in a functioning
democracy. More than 40 years ago, her father, in alliance with
the army, destroyed Indonesia's first democracy. Sukarno was
overthrown by Maj. Gen. Soeharto, who ruled as a dictator for
more than 30 years.

Habibie's tenure was brief. As Soeharto's vice president, he
had no initial legitimacy and was unable to develop any in time
for the 1999 presidential election. Abdurrahman, Indonesia's
first democratically elected president, threw away his legitimacy
in a series of erratic policy and personnel decisions.

Megawati, by contrast, has been a model of democratic sense.
She may not have moved to reform the judicial sector, arguably
Indonesia's most pressing 21st century need if it is to become a
modern nation. Moreover, army leaders, with her blessing, have
begun to reassert a political role for themselves, stalling if
not reversing the post-Soeharto trend toward civilian supremacy,
another necessary pillar of a modern nation.

Megawati's accomplishment has been more fundamental: To create
a democratically-elected government that can actually govern the
country, formulate and implement policies and respond to domestic
and international events.

Her initial strategy was to put together a rainbow coalition
of cabinet ministers (plus the vice-president) inclusive of
nearly all major political groups in the legislature, including
Muslim and secular forces. She has since been determined to
maintain her coalition intact. As a result, ministers have been
able to develop policies and programs and other players have
learned what to expect from her government.

Not least important, her presidency has been secure from
challenge by the leaders of disaffected parties.

Finally, Megawati has successfully (so far) administered the
constitutional transition to a presidential democracy in which,
for the first time in Indonesian history, the president and vice-
president will be directly elected by the voters in 2004.

Megawati did not lead the process of amending the
constitution. She appears to have opposed key reforms as they
were being debated in the People's Consultative Assembly. But
she has never questioned the Assembly's right to amend the
constitution or her responsibility to implement its decisions.

Such a commitment is basic, to be expected of any president in
a democracy, but highly unusual in her country's history. If she
stays the course, she will have contributed significantly to the
consolidation of Indonesian democracy.