Megawati, Susilo top survey of presidential possibles

Megawati, Susilo top survey of presidential possibles

Kurniawan Hari, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

A recent survey by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) shows
that President Megawati Soekarnoputri and Coordinating Minister
for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono are
the most favored figures for the next president.

Of the total of 2,240 respondents, 17.7 percent opted for
Megawati, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), while another 11.8 percent threw their
support behind Susilo.

House Speaker Akbar Tandjung, former president Abdurrahman
Wahid, Vice President Hamzah Haz, and People's Consultative
Assembly Speaker Amien Rais were supported by 8 percent, 7.9
percent, 7.8 percent, and 7.3 percent of respondents
respectively.

Minister of Justice and Human Rights Yusril Ihza Mahendra
ranked seventh with 6.8 percent.

Muslim scholar Nurcholish Madjid and Coordinating Minister for
People's Welfare Jusuf Kalla received 5.5 percent and 2.7 percent
of support respectively.

However, most respondents (19.6 percent) declined to name
their preference.

"The next election could be the end of Amien Rais' political
career. He once said he would return to campus should he fail to
be elected president next year," LSI researcher Denny JA told a
press conference here on Wednesday.

The emergence of Susilo as a possible winner, with the second
major show of support, was somewhat surprising as he is the only
figure in the survey who does not belong to any political party.

Megawati chairs PDI Perjuangan, the country's largest party,
Akbar chairs Golkar Party, and Hamzah chairs the United
Development Party (PPP).

Although Abdurrahman does not chair the National Awakening
Party (PKB), he is an influential figure in the fourth largest
party.

Amien and Yusril are chairmen of the National Mandate Party
(PAN) and the Crescent Star Party (PBB) respectively.

"Susilo's position as the coordinating minister for political
and security affairs has widened his fame. Besides, he has the
capability to communicate with the public," Denny said.

Fellow researcher, Saiful Mujani, added that a series of his
own surveys since 1999 illustrated that Susilo's popularity had
been increasing with time.

For the first time in history, Indonesia will have a direct
presidential election next year. Due to many political parties
nominating presidential candidates, it will be hard for each
candidate to win a simple majority in the first round of the
election.

This will prompt two presidential aspirants obtaining the
largest number of votes to contest the run-off.

The survey also shows that Megawati would gain the most votes
in the second-round election if her rival is one of Abdurrahman,
Akbar, Kalla, Nurcholish, Yusril, or Amien.

However, if Megawati's contender in the second-round election
is Hamzah or Susilo, the distribution of votes will be more
balanced.

Denny also revealed that none of the 19 figures joining the
Golkar Party Convention had received significant support in the
survey. However, Golkar could be "the king maker" in next year's
election by nominating popular candidates.

The survey was conducted from Aug. 1 to Aug. 20 nationwide
excluding the province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam. A total of
2,240 respondents were chosen with multistage random sampling.

The proportion of respondents living in urban and rural areas
was 42 percent and 58 percent respectively. The proportion of
female and male respondents was fifty-fifty.

The margin of error of the survey was +/- 3 percent on the
reliability rate of 0.05. Respondents were directly interviewed
in this survey.

The survey was funded by the Japan International Corporation
Agency (JICA).