Megawati may be the cure of Indonesia's ill

Megawati may be the cure of Indonesia's ill

HONG KONG: Abdurrahman Wahid's presidency is looking more precarious with every passing week. The nation's economy has not been turned around, political reforms are going nowhere and ethnic violence is tearing apart the provinces. Indonesians are thus understandably restless for change. The danger is that this anxiety will be used to. remove the president prematurely, undermining democracy in the process.

There are three methods Indonesians can employ to end Wahid's presidency: the slow way, the fast way or the violent way. The last of these would be by military coup or widespread violent revolt in the streets -- the second by impeachment or special congressional action.

The slow way happens to be that set out already by the People's Consultative Assembly last August when its members gave the president a year to show progress on his promises for reform. Many leaders still want to oust him earlier, but in January the Parliament opted for a censure motion and a delayed timetable for him to produce results.

If waiting until the next elections in 2004 is not a viable option, providing Wahid the rest of the year to prove himself is the safest course for Indonesian democracy. While some of the president's opponents may consider this too lenient for the country's good, it is important to preserve the constitutional process.

In a nation riven by factions, adherence to the principle of due process provides some stability. Elections, after all, are the preferred way to change governments. Unless there is proven corruption, opposition parties can't constantly chuck out democratically elected leaders simply because their public support has waned.

The choice now is in many ways in the hands of Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who sits as the logical successor to Wahid. She is popular with the public, largely because she is daughter of Sukarno, the country's first president, known as the father of Indonesian independence.

Megawati leads the Indonesian Democratic Party, or PDI Perjuangan, which received the most votes in the 1999 parliamentary elections, and so she could claim a democratic mandate if she were to emerge as the next president. Her say is critical in deciding Wahid's fate because the PDI Perjuangan reportedly is split over the question of whether he should be deposed now or be allowed to remain for the rest of his probationary year.

There has been some talk; about unseemly opportunism on the part of the vice president. Pro-Wahid factions and media outlets have pointed to her cozy relationship with military leaders and frequent nationwide travels -- most recently to violence-torn Borneo -- as proof of a power play in the works. Based on the evidence at hand, however, such a charge is unfounded. While it is important for Megawati not to appear to be campaigning for military backing, it is also wise for civilian leaders not to neglect the brass in a country where keeping the armed forces in check is a complicated matter.

Her travels around the country, especially during emergencies, can easily be justified under her role as vice president.

It is times like these -- when a nation is split down the middle -- that political leaders need to play a unifying role. Unfortunately Wahid has not gone out of his way to discourage recent violent street riots on his behalf. Megawati, who has made a reputation for keeping mum about her ultimate political ambitions, could take strides as a leader by publicly denouncing violence on both sides and by loudly voicing opposition to any plans that would oust Wahid prematurely, be they by congressional action of otherwise.

Especially if Megawati is destined to be Indonesia's next president, it is important for her future relations with the rest of the world that she assumes office on a constitutional basis. Sending dubious signals about the direction of democracy in the country could hurt foreign investment.

It could also alienate the United States, a long-time strategic partner, which has already limited its contacts with the Indonesian military because of the carnage in East Timor. The International Monetary Fund, which has stalled delivery of the balance of a US$5 billion aid package, has said it will provide Indonesia additional funds if the nation takes positive steps to improve itself.

Such assistance -- as well as new foreign investment -- is obviously conditioned on a legal transition of power.

Democracy in Indonesia is at a crossroads. In a very tangible way Vice President Megawati can direct which course the country will follow. Her support of the country's constitutional procedures -- to her credit, unshakable up till now -- will go a long way in helping guarantee future peaceful transitions of power for the world's third largest democracy.

-- The Asian Wall Street Journal