Megawati may be the cure of Indonesia's ill

Megawati may be the cure of Indonesia's ill

HONG KONG: Abdurrahman Wahid's presidency is looking more
precarious with every passing week. The nation's economy has not
been turned around, political reforms are going nowhere and
ethnic violence is tearing apart the provinces. Indonesians are
thus understandably restless for change. The danger is that this
anxiety will be used to. remove the president prematurely,
undermining democracy in the process.

There are three methods Indonesians can employ to end Wahid's
presidency: the slow way, the fast way or the violent way. The
last of these would be by military coup or widespread violent
revolt in the streets -- the second by impeachment or special
congressional action.

The slow way happens to be that set out already by the
People's Consultative Assembly last August when its members gave
the president a year to show progress on his promises for reform.
Many leaders still want to oust him earlier, but in January the
Parliament opted for a censure motion and a delayed timetable for
him to produce results.

If waiting until the next elections in 2004 is not a viable
option, providing Wahid the rest of the year to prove himself is
the safest course for Indonesian democracy. While some of the
president's opponents may consider this too lenient for the
country's good, it is important to preserve the constitutional
process.

In a nation riven by factions, adherence to the principle of
due process provides some stability. Elections, after all, are
the preferred way to change governments. Unless there is proven
corruption, opposition parties can't constantly chuck out
democratically elected leaders simply because their public
support has waned.

The choice now is in many ways in the hands of Vice President
Megawati Soekarnoputri, who sits as the logical successor to
Wahid. She is popular with the public, largely because she is
daughter of Sukarno, the country's first president, known as the
father of Indonesian independence.

Megawati leads the Indonesian Democratic Party, or PDI
Perjuangan, which received the most votes in the 1999
parliamentary elections, and so she could claim a democratic
mandate if she were to emerge as the next president. Her say is
critical in deciding Wahid's fate because the PDI Perjuangan
reportedly is split over the question of whether he should be
deposed now or be allowed to remain for the rest of his
probationary year.

There has been some talk; about unseemly opportunism on the
part of the vice president. Pro-Wahid factions and media outlets
have pointed to her cozy relationship with military leaders and
frequent nationwide travels -- most recently to violence-torn
Borneo -- as proof of a power play in the works. Based on the
evidence at hand, however, such a charge is unfounded. While it
is important for Megawati not to appear to be campaigning for
military backing, it is also wise for civilian leaders not to
neglect the brass in a country where keeping the armed forces in
check is a complicated matter.

Her travels around the country, especially during emergencies,
can easily be justified under her role as vice president.

It is times like these -- when a nation is split down the
middle -- that political leaders need to play a unifying role.
Unfortunately Wahid has not gone out of his way to discourage
recent violent street riots on his behalf. Megawati, who has made
a reputation for keeping mum about her ultimate political
ambitions, could take strides as a leader by publicly denouncing
violence on both sides and by loudly voicing opposition to any
plans that would oust Wahid prematurely, be they by congressional
action of otherwise.

Especially if Megawati is destined to be Indonesia's next
president, it is important for her future relations with the rest
of the world that she assumes office on a constitutional basis.
Sending dubious signals about the direction of democracy in the
country could hurt foreign investment.

It could also alienate the United States, a long-time
strategic partner, which has already limited its contacts with
the Indonesian military because of the carnage in East Timor. The
International Monetary Fund, which has stalled delivery of the
balance of a US$5 billion aid package, has said it will provide
Indonesia additional funds if the nation takes positive steps to
improve itself.

Such assistance -- as well as new foreign investment -- is
obviously conditioned on a legal transition of power.

Democracy in Indonesia is at a crossroads. In a very tangible
way Vice President Megawati can direct which course the country
will follow. Her support of the country's constitutional
procedures -- to her credit, unshakable up till now -- will go a
long way in helping guarantee future peaceful transitions of
power for the world's third largest democracy.

-- The Asian Wall Street Journal