Megawati may be betraying her supporters

Megawati may be betraying her supporters

J. Soedjati Djiwandono, Political Analyst, Jakarta

Some cases have indicated that the Indonesian Democratic Party
of Struggle, the political party under President Megawati
Soekarnoputri, has betrayed its supporters, not only among its
own rank and file, but also its sympathizers outside the party
(PDI Perjuangan). It has abandoned and betrayed the common
people, the small and the downtrodden, which the party has
claimed to represent.

There is little doubt that the main asset that had made its
victory possible at the 1999 election was not the fact that she
is the daughter of the late president Sukarno, the first and the
most popular and charismatic president of the Indonesian republic
since independence.

It was, rather, the fact that Megawati was seen by many as a
rallying point of opposition to then president Soeharto's New
Order. She was a silent symbol of Soeharto's victim of his
authoritarian and repressive regime, particularly manifested in
the so-called July 27 affair of 1996.

It is in that sense that Megawati represented the downtrodden,
the small people alienated and marginalized by the Soeharto's New
Order. After all, she had not proved herself to be a good
political leader, let alone a competent and seasoned politician.
Nor is she a great intellectual figure, which her late father
was.

Her election as vice president clearly disappointed not only
herself, but also her supporters, the rank and file of her party
and many others in society of all walks of life, who most
probably had voted for her party in the election. They found it
hard to understand and to accept the outcome despite her
electoral victory -- over 30 percent of the votes, making PDI
Perjuangan the first winner of the 1999 election, though not
successful in winning a single majority.

The system of electing the President and Vice President by the
People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the supreme governing body
in the Indonesian political system, relegated her to the post of
vice president, ironically electing Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur)
president, a man who did not even contest the election as a
representative of any political party, but rather an appointed
member of the MPR representing one of the ill-defined "functional
groups."

Together the Golkar Party, second winner of the election, and
the "central axis", a loose coalition of Islamic-based political
parties, which together formed a majority in the MPR, easily put
Gus Dur in the presidential post, especially by using the issue
of Megawati's gender, popular among Muslims, apparently even
among mostly conservative Muslim women themselves.

Indeed, Megawati finally was elected President only following
the impeachment of president Abdurrahman Wahid. Once she became
President, however, which was naturally most welcomed by her
voters, Megawati 's policies as well as those of her party have
since given the impression that she has forsaken the very people
that have voted her, though not directly, to the presidency.

To be sure, it is not easy to make a distinction between the
policies she pursues as President and those she adopts as leader
of PDI Perjuangan. In Indonesia, moreover, there is no
distinction between party leader and party chairperson as in more
advanced democracies as in the United Kingdom or the United
States.

Contrary to the expectations of many, Megawati is strongly
opposed to a direct election of president and vice president. A
constitutional amendment on presidential election is reportedly
to be shelved.

Such an attitude implies that she wants to maintain the
existence of the MPR, regardless of amendments. That seems common
among most of the politicians, although a direct presidential
election should result in the abolishment of the MPR. And more
than the rest of the political elite, Megawati seems even
inclined to have the 1945 Constitution left basically as it is.
She has been reported to entertain the idea of freezing the
process of constitutional amendments altogether. Like most
Indonesian politicians, she seems to regard the constitution as
sacrosanct, particularly its preamble, which is supposed not to
be open to any form of amendment.

Hers is a strange attitude, indeed. Her failure to be elected
President by the MPR made many people, especially her supporters,
disappointed with the mechanism of electing the President by the
MPR. After all, many wondered, she was the chief winner of the
1999 election! One would wonder if she does not feel confident
enough to run for the presidency through a direct election.

In such a case, she may hope to be president through an
election by the MPR if she can foster close cooperation, even an
coalition or an alliance, with other parties, particularly the
Golkar party, to win the presidency.

This may explain her opposition to the idea of establishing a
special House committee to investigate the Bulogate II involving
Akbar Tandjung, House Speaker and chairman of the Golkar Party.
The case refers to the embezzlement of "non-budgetary" funds
under the State Logistics Agency (Bulog). Her party's approval
would certainly have resulted in the establishment of such a
special committee.

That may imply that she feels the likely need for the support
and cooperation of Golkar in the next election in 2004. In fact,
the findings of a similar special House committee on Bulogate I
resulted in the impeachment of president Wahid. The difference is
that Akbar's case is in due legal process, which was not the case
with then president Gus Dur. Nevertheless, there seems to be a
considerable degree of uncertainty in the present legal
proceedings.

No less interesting has been the support that Megawati has
pledged for the candidacy of Jakarta Governor Sutiyoso, for a
second term in the next election later this year. Not only is
Sutiyoso a controversial figure because of his bad records such
as his failure in anticipating and later in dealing with the
floods in the capital earlier this year; his policy regarding the
becak (pedicab) drivers, street vendors, and those regarded as
illegal occupants (squatters) of numerous land areas in the
capital.

Megawati's reason for her support is the need to ensure
security until general elections in 2004. And being an Army
general, Sutiyoso is regarded as the right man for the job.

More importantly, however, Sutiyoso may be a controversial
figure within the PDIP itself. During the riots accompanying the
July 27 affair in 1996, Sutiyoso was the Jakarta military
commander. As such, he was most probably also responsible for
what happened on that day, although he once said that the affair
was a national policy, meaning that former president Soeharto was
primarily responsible for it.

In any case, Sutiyoso has been named one of the suspects.
Megawati's support is an affront to the victims of the July 27
affair as well as to their families and relatives, despite the
reported "reconciliation" between him and Megawati or her party.

Whatever the case, by seemingly abandoning the small people,
Megawati is forsaking her roots. Her strategy could well be
counterproductive. It would be an illusion on her part, if at the
coming general election in 2004, she thinks she would be able to
maintain her image that made her an impressive winner at the 1999
election.