Mega gets a reprieve, but for how long?

Mega gets a reprieve, but for how long?

Derwin Pereira, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

President Megawati Soekarnoputri may breathe a sigh of relief
after planned nationwide demonstrations that threatened to bring
the country to a grinding halt failed to materialize.
But her administration should not rest on its laurels because the
public's deep-seated resentment towards the decision to raise
fuel prices and electricity and telephone rates could still
undermine the government.

Increasing utility charges is a politically explosive issue in
Indonesia. After all, it triggered former president Soeharto's
downfall in May 1998.

Since then, successive governments have sought to push through
the policy in a variegated fashion, some backing down at the last
minute after a spate of violent protests. In most cases, the
authorities have weathered the storm.

Over the past week, demonstrations have been the order of the
day in Jakarta, Bali, Jambi, Java, Kalimantan, Maluku, North
Sumatra, Papua, Riau and Sulawesi.

But they have not been able to generate the kind of momentum
that would pose a serious danger to the 55-year-old in power, or
that would force her to compromise.

The low turnout on Thursday is proof of this. Even the stock
market reacted positively, rising 1.69 percent, in part because
the demonstrations were relatively peaceful.

The protests had been billed by the media here as likely to be
the biggest ever against price hikes. Some newspapers screamed
that there would be 25,000 to 100,000 demonstrators in the
capital alone.

But by most estimates, some 7,000 workers -- joined for the
first time by hundreds of businessmen -- took part in the
protests nationwide.

It would be inaccurate to infer from the low turnout that
Indonesians are not concerned about the government's policy.
Across the social divide, people are opposed bitterly to it.

But, to the President's benefit, many are reluctant to take
part in demonstrations because of political lethargy.

Democracy is a much-vaunted concept here, but there is little
desire to be involved in protest marches that clog the roads --
and which contribute to creating uncertainty in the minds of
investors about the economy.

Adding to this is the general aversion to plots and backroom
dealings of Jakarta's elite.

Indeed, the current demonstrations smack of political
opportunism. Politicians like Amien and his supporters in the
Reform Faction have no intention of toppling Megawati. But they
want to needle her, enough to dent her credibility ahead of next
year's presidential election, by waving nationalist and populist
banners.

No one should fault Megawati for raising prices and rates. Her
actions show her resolve to correct economic fundamentals and
stick to the prescriptions set by the International Monetary
Fund.

But some believe it would have been better for Jakarta to
stagger the price increases to 'soften the blow'. So the
government may have benefited this time from the political
inertia of Indonesians and the symbolic support of key parties
and the armed forces.