MBG Under Scrutiny by Fitch Ratings, Here Is Airlangga's Response
Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto has responded to Fitch Ratings’ assessment, which included the Free Nutritious Meals Programme (MBG) among the considerations in their evaluation. Airlangga said MBG is a long-term investment.
From several observations by global institutions, a broad, well-implemented free nutritious meals programme can increase investment. He cited studies from the World Bank and the Rockefeller Foundation indicating that when MBG is implemented massively and well, every US$1 invested yields US$7 in return. This investment cannot easily be assessed in the short term.
“So it is an investment and many countries are doing it, even the United States is doing it too. Therefore this is a long-term and medium-term challenge, which cannot be eliminated for the sake of the short term,” he told reporters at Menara Batavia, Jakarta, on Thursday, 5 March 2026.
The MBG programme is now part of Fitch Ratings’ notes when considering the pressure of sustainable public spending. Airlangga said there has been no dedicated evaluation of President Prabowo Subianto’s flagship programme yet, even though Fitch included it among its assessment considerations. “MBG is still in operation. So if it proceeds, we will keep rolling it out,” he said.
Fitch Ratings lowered Indonesia’s debt outlook from stable to negative on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. The MBG programme is among the factors considered in the assessment of long-term spending pressures.
The drive to spur economic growth and dampen the residual social tensions from last year’s protests will lead to higher social spending. “This includes the free nutritious meals programme (1.3 per cent of GDP). The plan to front-load spending in the first half of 2026 could raise the risk of fiscal slippage,” the official Fitch Ratings release stated.
The agency projects a fiscal deficit of 2.9 per cent of GDP in 2025 which is expected to continue this year. In other words, the deficit is forecast to exceed the 2026 government deficit target of 2.68 per cent.