Massive Transaction Ahead of Trump's Iran Plan: "Insider Trading"?
Financial market experts are voicing serious concerns over the possibility of insider trading practices. This was triggered by an unusual surge in trading activity for oil futures contracts just minutes before President Donald Trump announced talks with Iran via the Truth Social platform.
Trump’s announcement, posted on Monday (24/03/2026) morning local time, immediately caused oil prices to drop, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 1,000 points. The President also praised what he called “productive” peace talks with Iran, providing relief to investors worried about rising oil prices and their impact on inflation and economic growth.
The message marked a sudden shift from Trump’s Saturday post, which had threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the country reopened the Strait of Hormuz for shipping traffic. This drastic change, which surprised investors, is now drawing close scrutiny over suspicious trading activity right before the market-moving announcement was released on Monday.
Massive Surge
Minutes before Trump’s post on Monday morning, there was a surge in oil futures trading according to a Financial Times report. Between 06:49 and 06:50, around 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands with a notional value of US$580 million (Rp9.86 trillion), based on Bloomberg data analysis by the Financial Times.
The average trading level for the same time period over the previous five trading days was only around 700 contracts. Market experts stated that the volume of crude oil futures trading on Monday morning was far larger than usual for that hour.
Stephen Piepgrass, a partner specialising in futures trading at the law firm Troutman Pepper Locke, commented to CBS News on the phenomenon.
“The massive surge in trading volume right before that post is certainly enough to raise eyebrows, and I think it warrants starting an investigation into what’s behind it,” said Piepgrass.
It also drew attention from Senator Chris Murphy, who noted there were very large oil stock transactions that occurred moments before President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on previous threats of attack against Iran’s energy infrastructure.
In an X post highlighted by Murphy, a stock market observer said, “In one move, US$1.5 billion worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought while US$192 million worth of oil futures contracts were sold.”
“US$1.5 BILLION. Let me say it again - a bet as large as US$1.5 BILLION. Bigger than any futures contract purchase at the time. Five minutes before Trump’s post,” Murphy wrote in his own post.
“Who is it? Trump? Family members? White House staff? This is corruption. Staggering corruption,” he added.
Jill Schlesinger, CBS News business analyst and former options trader at New York’s Commodities Exchange, noted that insider trading is illegal because it undermines market integrity and investor confidence.
“Does it seem fair if someone trades and makes money and reaps profits from information that you and I don’t have? Yeah, that kind of thing is really bad,” said Schlesinger.
However, Schlesinger said she does not expect government securities regulators to investigate the oil trading, partly because Trump has previously expressed support for a more lenient regulatory environment. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees the futures market, did not immediately respond to requests for comment, nor did the White House.
No Clear Catalyst
One reason the oil futures trading surge raises suspicion is that there were no scheduled market-moving announcements on Monday morning, such as government economic releases or speeches from Federal Reserve officials.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote in a blog post dated 24 March that the trading was highly unusual because there were no major public news items available to drive such a sudden large market transaction.
“This story is baffling, unless there’s a clear explanation: Someone close to Trump knew what he was going to do, and exploited that inside information for instant big profits,” wrote Krugman.
Although there are suspicions, it is unclear whether the trading was initiated by humans or algorithms commonly used in computer trading. Tim Skirrow, head of energy and derivatives at consultancy firm Energy Aspects, explained that algorithms usually rely on pre-set strategies to execute trades.
Skirrow’s data shows that the trading at 06:50 on Monday was six times the typical volume for that time.
“In terms of size, it’s not that big - it’s just unusual for a time like this,” said Skirrow.
Other Suspicious Trading
Another recent example of unusual trading has raised questions about individuals potentially acting on secret information or even classified government information. One trader with the username “Magamyman” made nearly US$600,000 (Rp10.2 billion) in February from timing the US and Israel attack on Iran, according to Polymarket data.
Other prediction market users have earned US$967,000 (Rp16.43 billion), including many trades involving Iran. The trader has a success rate of over 93%.