Massive quake demonstrates why Japan is what it is (2)

Massive quake demonstrates why Japan is what it is (2)

This is the second of two articles by The Jakarta Post Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin who sets the Kansai Earthquake against the background of Japan's traditional psychology.

HONG KONG (JP): Despite a lengthening casualty list, the major Kansai Earthquake still pales by comparison with the Great Kanto one in Tokyo and Yokohama 72 years ago when 140,000 died.

Nevertheless, the many obvious shortcomings of the rescue and relief operation in response to this disaster should give the newly formed opposition party Shinshinto (New Frontier Party) an opportunity not merely to verbally chastise the government, but also to make a strong impact on Japanese politics at the beginning of an election year.

First and last, perhaps the greatest single casualty of the Kansai earthquake has been the hubris with which Japanese had come to regard their chances of surviving a major tremor relatively unscathed.

Prior to this disaster, the pervasive Japanese belief in their much-vaunted technological superiority, plus the relative recent absence of any great quake in a major urban area, held sway. It created a good deal of complacency -- despite those deep uncertainties already discussed.

It can even be argued that complacency is the essential defense mechanism used by Japanese to grapple with the knowledge that they are always subject to massive, unpredictable and uncontrollable shifts in the earth's crust.

Additionally, major quakes in the Kansai area are rarer than those in the Kanto region. So obviously the precautions taken in Kobe were less than those allegedly made in the capital city Tokyo. But another factor in the equation was the pervasive belief that technological advance had somehow made Japan less exposed to its traditional tragedies.

Such arrogance was clearly on view in the media, and in Japanese attitudes generally, in the reactions to recent earthquakes in California, notably the one in Los Angeles exactly a year ago. "That cannot happen here" was often said, as a U.S. freeway toppled over, not least by officials of the Japanese Ministry of Construction.

Now, as both the elevated Hanshin Expressway in Kansai and Japanese hubris crash to the ground, the present coalition government in Japan could be a further casualty.

The Mainichi Shimbun newspaper indicated the national come- down as, after analyzing the post-earthquake breakdown in communications, transport and utilities in the stricken area, it suggested that "It is hard to believe this is 'economic superpower Japan'".

Secondly, even though the Kansai earthquake has been getting blanket television coverage, the government, like the monarchy, was unbelievably slow to project an image of concern.

This was well illustrated on Jan. 19 when, 56 hours after the earthquake, Murayama became the first cabinet minister to take a brief first-hand look at all the devastation.

Given the death toll plus the privations being suffered in the cold winter weather by between 200,000 and 300,000 evacuees in and around Kobe, the absence of other ministers was an extraordinary omission. Murayama hardly improved the government's standing with his visit.

On the one hand, he emphasized the ministerial oversight in not coming earlier to the scene, by admitting that "the (earthquake) destruction was much worse than I imagined". He had been heard to talk about two or three hundred evacuees after the quake hit.

On the other, he underlined the many shortcomings of the government response to the crisis, as he also admitted that the Kansai earthquake had become "a disaster that nobody could even imagine".

Murayama's lack of imagination is easily explained. Before the earthquake struck, and also probably afterwards, he was preoccupied with the imminent final breakup of the Japan Socialist Party.

There has been some criticism of the government in the press. Optimistically, the second largest newspaper the Asahi Shimbun editorialized that "Parliament, in addition to pressing the government for emergency measures for the quake damage, must, through a debate on disaster policies, thoroughly ensure the people's peace of mind".

However, after forty years of one-party rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), there is no guarantee that the people's suffering in Kansai will translate into pointed parliamentary questions, let alone heated debate in the Diet.

This is where the newly formed Shinshinto led by former Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu should seize the moment since, in many ways, the Kansai Earthquake has played right into its hands.

Shinshinto spokesmen have already stressed tactical mistakes, such as the delayed deployment of large numbers of the Japanese military to help cope with the catastrophe. Another relevant criticism has been the failure to control traffic on the roads that were still accessible in the disaster area, thereby limiting access to those involved in emergencies and relief.

Shinshinto maintains that the coalition government is inefficient -- the disaster provides plenty of ammunition on this score.

Shinshinto argues that Japanese politics should involve greater competition between the two main parties -- the earthquake gives it a chance to practice what it preaches.

Above all, Shinshinto leaders maintain that the politicians must take back control of government and society back from the bureaucrats.

The complacency, poor anticipation, and insufficient organization which have characterized the inadequate responses to the Kansai earthquake and its aftermath emphatically reinforce this view. They are the natural by-products of a state wherein unelected bureaucrats control decision-making.

Amazingly, Japanese bureaucratic arrogance was superbly depicted when the Governor of Osaka prefecture (himself a career bureaucrat) blamed the victims of the earthquake for their misery.

"(Those evacuated) should cook their meals for themselves but they don't have the will to do so,"Governor Kazuo Nakagawa said "They should do whatever they can. But they think someone else will do something for them".

The newly formed opposition party has been handed a great opportunity but whether Shinshinto will use the earthquake to advantage remains in doubt. So far, its leaders, too, have refrained from visiting the disaster area.

So perhaps the old undemocratic Japan, itself born of disaster, will remain in charge. Muddling through will be once again preferred to properly apportioning blame for the man-made aspects of the calamity.

Dissident socialists who had promised to resign from the Socialist Party, and form a new opposition grouping, have postponed their departure, preferring ostensible harmony at a moment of crisis rather than more pointed and effective criticism.

In this and other ways, criticism generally will be muted in order not to rock the boat. Political leaders, even from Shinshinto, will not lead for fear of being chided as too assertive. Politicians will remain merely the titular holders of power. Bureaucrats will retain control, even though the price will almost certainly be more of the complacency which has already cost many additional lives in the wake of the major earthquake.

So it rather looks as if the opportunity to become more meaningfully democratic will be missed. Japan will prefer to remain as it has been moulded by countless natural disasters.