Massive quake demonstrates why Japan is what it is (2)
Massive quake demonstrates why Japan is what it is (2)
This is the second of two articles by The Jakarta Post Asia
correspondent Harvey Stockwin who sets the Kansai Earthquake
against the background of Japan's traditional psychology.
HONG KONG (JP): Despite a lengthening casualty list, the major
Kansai Earthquake still pales by comparison with the Great Kanto
one in Tokyo and Yokohama 72 years ago when 140,000 died.
Nevertheless, the many obvious shortcomings of the rescue and
relief operation in response to this disaster should give the
newly formed opposition party Shinshinto (New Frontier Party) an
opportunity not merely to verbally chastise the government, but
also to make a strong impact on Japanese politics at the
beginning of an election year.
First and last, perhaps the greatest single casualty of the
Kansai earthquake has been the hubris with which Japanese had
come to regard their chances of surviving a major tremor
relatively unscathed.
Prior to this disaster, the pervasive Japanese belief in their
much-vaunted technological superiority, plus the relative recent
absence of any great quake in a major urban area, held sway. It
created a good deal of complacency -- despite those deep
uncertainties already discussed.
It can even be argued that complacency is the essential
defense mechanism used by Japanese to grapple with the knowledge
that they are always subject to massive, unpredictable and
uncontrollable shifts in the earth's crust.
Additionally, major quakes in the Kansai area are rarer than
those in the Kanto region. So obviously the precautions taken in
Kobe were less than those allegedly made in the capital city
Tokyo. But another factor in the equation was the pervasive
belief that technological advance had somehow made Japan less
exposed to its traditional tragedies.
Such arrogance was clearly on view in the media, and in
Japanese attitudes generally, in the reactions to recent
earthquakes in California, notably the one in Los Angeles exactly
a year ago. "That cannot happen here" was often said, as a U.S.
freeway toppled over, not least by officials of the Japanese
Ministry of Construction.
Now, as both the elevated Hanshin Expressway in Kansai and
Japanese hubris crash to the ground, the present coalition
government in Japan could be a further casualty.
The Mainichi Shimbun newspaper indicated the national come-
down as, after analyzing the post-earthquake breakdown in
communications, transport and utilities in the stricken area, it
suggested that "It is hard to believe this is 'economic
superpower Japan'".
Secondly, even though the Kansai earthquake has been getting
blanket television coverage, the government, like the monarchy,
was unbelievably slow to project an image of concern.
This was well illustrated on Jan. 19 when, 56 hours after the
earthquake, Murayama became the first cabinet minister to take a
brief first-hand look at all the devastation.
Given the death toll plus the privations being suffered in the
cold winter weather by between 200,000 and 300,000 evacuees in
and around Kobe, the absence of other ministers was an
extraordinary omission. Murayama hardly improved the government's
standing with his visit.
On the one hand, he emphasized the ministerial oversight in
not coming earlier to the scene, by admitting that "the
(earthquake) destruction was much worse than I imagined". He had
been heard to talk about two or three hundred evacuees after the
quake hit.
On the other, he underlined the many shortcomings of the
government response to the crisis, as he also admitted that the
Kansai earthquake had become "a disaster that nobody could even
imagine".
Murayama's lack of imagination is easily explained. Before the
earthquake struck, and also probably afterwards, he was
preoccupied with the imminent final breakup of the Japan
Socialist Party.
There has been some criticism of the government in the press.
Optimistically, the second largest newspaper the Asahi Shimbun
editorialized that "Parliament, in addition to pressing the
government for emergency measures for the quake damage, must,
through a debate on disaster policies, thoroughly ensure the
people's peace of mind".
However, after forty years of one-party rule by the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP), there is no guarantee that the people's
suffering in Kansai will translate into pointed parliamentary
questions, let alone heated debate in the Diet.
This is where the newly formed Shinshinto led by former Prime
Minister Toshiki Kaifu should seize the moment since, in many
ways, the Kansai Earthquake has played right into its hands.
Shinshinto spokesmen have already stressed tactical mistakes,
such as the delayed deployment of large numbers of the Japanese
military to help cope with the catastrophe. Another relevant
criticism has been the failure to control traffic on the roads
that were still accessible in the disaster area, thereby limiting
access to those involved in emergencies and relief.
Shinshinto maintains that the coalition government is
inefficient -- the disaster provides plenty of ammunition on this
score.
Shinshinto argues that Japanese politics should involve
greater competition between the two main parties -- the
earthquake gives it a chance to practice what it preaches.
Above all, Shinshinto leaders maintain that the politicians
must take back control of government and society back from the
bureaucrats.
The complacency, poor anticipation, and insufficient
organization which have characterized the inadequate responses to
the Kansai earthquake and its aftermath emphatically reinforce
this view. They are the natural by-products of a state wherein
unelected bureaucrats control decision-making.
Amazingly, Japanese bureaucratic arrogance was superbly
depicted when the Governor of Osaka prefecture (himself a career
bureaucrat) blamed the victims of the earthquake for their
misery.
"(Those evacuated) should cook their meals for themselves but
they don't have the will to do so,"Governor Kazuo Nakagawa said
"They should do whatever they can. But they think someone else
will do something for them".
The newly formed opposition party has been handed a great
opportunity but whether Shinshinto will use the earthquake to
advantage remains in doubt. So far, its leaders, too, have
refrained from visiting the disaster area.
So perhaps the old undemocratic Japan, itself born of
disaster, will remain in charge. Muddling through will be once
again preferred to properly apportioning blame for the man-made
aspects of the calamity.
Dissident socialists who had promised to resign from the
Socialist Party, and form a new opposition grouping, have
postponed their departure, preferring ostensible harmony at a
moment of crisis rather than more pointed and effective
criticism.
In this and other ways, criticism generally will be muted in
order not to rock the boat. Political leaders, even from
Shinshinto, will not lead for fear of being chided as too
assertive. Politicians will remain merely the titular holders of
power. Bureaucrats will retain control, even though the price
will almost certainly be more of the complacency which has
already cost many additional lives in the wake of the major
earthquake.
So it rather looks as if the opportunity to become more
meaningfully democratic will be missed. Japan will prefer to
remain as it has been moulded by countless natural disasters.