Market monitors developments in the Iran–US conflict as IHSG poised to weaken

Maximilianus Nico Demus, also known as Nico, Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, projects that the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) could move lower in Wednesday’s trading, with sentiment primarily shaped by global conditions. He said the main sentiment would come from market participants who continue to monitor and worry about an escalation of the conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel. ‘Based on technical analysis, we see the IHSG potentially weakening modestly with support and resistance at 7,860–8,150,’ he said in his briefing in Jakarta on Wednesday. The latest Middle East conflict news, US President Donald Trump stated he would provide insurance guarantees and naval escort for oil tankers and other ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The move is said to aim at preventing an energy crisis and ensuring energy distribution is not hindered, thereby giving market players reassurance that global inflation resulting from higher energy prices could be more contained. ‘The war is ongoing, and in our view market participants and investors still have a negative outlook on this matter, thus continuing to push global stock and bond markets down,’ Nico said. Regarding tariffs, Trump said new tariffs are being designed by the US government to replace tariffs struck down by the US Supreme Court, which will be somewhat higher than those agreed with trading partners in the bilateral deals over the past year. Domestically, BEI and KSEI have officially issued information on ownership of more than 1% of listed companies. Ownership information for companies above 1% will be provided by KSEI and published monthly on BEI’s site, www.idx.co.id/id/berita/pengumuman/ or www.idx.co.id > News > Announcements. With this information available, BEI hopes investors can obtain more accurate references when making investment decisions, while strengthening confidence, integrity and credibility of Indonesia’s capital market. Meanwhile, the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will issue a new ministerial regulation related to the Nickel Ore Reference Price (HMA) in March 2026, which will alter the benchmark price of nickel ore. The revision responds to APNI’s proposal that the Mineral Reference Price (HPM) formula be adjusted to also account for iron and cobalt, rather than simply raising royalty rates. APNI says the old formula caused losses of up to USD 6.3 billion over two years. For the state, a formula-based scheme is seen as more optimal for maximising royalties, especially if by-product minerals like cobalt are charged separately. However, higher ore prices could raise raw material costs for domestic smelters and squeeze margins in the processing industry amid a global supply surplus. ‘Market-wise, this policy tends to be positive for upstream nickel miners, though the impact may be limited or neutral for players,’ Nico said. On Tuesday (3/3), European stock markets broadly fell, with Euro Stoxx 50 down 3.64%, the UK’s FTSE 100 down 2.75%, Germany’s DAX down 3.44% and France’s CAC down 3.46%. US stocks on Wall Street also fell on Tuesday (03/03), including the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.83% to 48,501.27, the S&P 500 down 0.95% to 6,816.63, and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.09% to 24,720.08.