Market Doubts US-Iran Negotiations, Global Oil Prices Rise to $99.39 US per Barrel
NEW YORK - Global oil prices strengthened at the close of trading on Thursday (16/4/2026) local time, or Friday morning (17/4/2026) WIB, driven by market doubts that peace negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran will soon resolve disruptions to global energy supplies.
Citing Reuters, Brent crude prices jumped $4.46 US, or 4.7 percent, to $99.39 US per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $3.40 US, or 3.7 percent, to $94.69 US per barrel.
The price increase occurred amid conflicts between the US and Israel against Iran, which have triggered the largest disruptions to global oil and gas supplies, particularly due to impeded ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait is a vital route typically used by around 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. Daily disruptions have further pressured global supplies.
“We remain sceptical that this war can be resolved soon. Every time there is positive news, it is always countered by opposing reports,” said PVM oil market analyst John Evans.
In contrast, US President Donald Trump stated that his country is close to reaching an agreement with Iran. However, the statement had little impact on oil price movements.
The market also showed no significant reaction to the announcement of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in a related conflict.
These supply disruptions are beginning to pressure global oil reserves, particularly for aviation fuel in several regions of Asia and Africa.
ING analysts estimate that around 13 million barrels per day of oil flow are disrupted due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
US gasoline and distillate stocks have also declined amid rising exports, as many countries seek alternative supplies outside the Middle East.
“Currently, there are no bomb attacks, but the number of ships that can pass through the strait is no better than before the US blockade. This continues to drain global reserves, which are starting to show in the US this week,” said TP ICAP analyst Scott Shelton.
The possibility of resuming peace negotiations remains open, with US and Iranian officials considering a meeting in Pakistan in the near future.
Sources familiar with talks in Tehran indicate that Iran may consider opening a shipping route on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz if an agreement is reached to prevent conflicts from recurring after a two-week ceasefire.
However, with the US blockade of Iranian ports following the failure of previous negotiations, supply disruptions could intensify, although some tanker ships granted sanctions exemptions can still pass through.
On the policy side, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasised that the government will not extend sanctions relief for portions of Iranian and Russian oil exports.
This situation indicates that while diplomatic channels are still being pursued, the global oil market remains overshadowed by high risks of supply disruptions, particularly from the Middle East region.