Marco Rubio: Trump's 'Chameleon' of Trust, the Brain Behind America's Hardline Policies

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - From opponent to trusted confidant, Marco Rubio is now at the centre of Trump’s foreign policy and bears its risks.

According to The Economist, a decade ago, Marco Rubio once called Donald Trump a “conman”. At the time, the two were competing for the Republican presidential nomination. Trump retaliated by mocking Rubio as “Little Marco”. Rubio even predicted that a Trump-led administration would end in “chaos”.

Now their relationship is much better. As Secretary of State in the Trump administration, Rubio shows great respect towards his superior. In turn, Trump praises Rubio and says he will go down as “the greatest Secretary of State in history”.

Rubio now emerges as one of the most valued figures in Trump’s court. He is known to be calm, eloquent, and competent in his work. Rubio is trying to give clearer direction to Trump’s foreign policy. He has also become the most prominent supporter of the shift in Trump’s foreign policy towards a harder line this year.

In January, when Trump sent commandos to kidnap Venezuela’s leader, and in February when he ordered the bombing of Iran, Rubio was by his side, monitoring the live broadcast from Mar-a-Lago. Meanwhile, the more isolationist vice president, J.D. Vance, followed developments from elsewhere.

If the current wave of military adventures ends well, Rubio will be in a strong position to run for president again next time. In closed conversations, Trump often asks his supporters who would be more suitable as the Republican presidential candidate in 2028, Rubio or Vance.

Much will depend on Trump’s support, as his influence is enormous among Republican primary voters. However, for Machiavellian reasons, namely to prevent his own power from fading quickly, Trump is likely to let both names continue to speculate for as long as possible.

Betting markets also show Rubio’s position rising. At the beginning of the year, Polymarket had Vance leading by 44 percentage points. Now the gap is just 10 points. However, a YouGov poll cited by The Economist shows Vance still has a higher net favourability rating among Republican voters, leading by 68 points to 47. Vance also leads in all ideological groups within the party.

Nevertheless, Rubio has turned things around from a more difficult position before. When he first ran for senator in 2010, he started 30 points behind his opponent, who was then the incumbent governor. But in the end, he won easily.

Rubio’s appeal to voters at that time was partly built on his life story. His parents from Cuba who came to America without speaking English and without money. They worked hard so their children could have a better life, his father as a bartender and his mother as a cashier.

Because of that, Rubio, who was then just 38 years old and already chairman of the Florida State House of Representatives, was seen as an embodiment of the American immigrant dream. When watching him campaign at that time, The Economist even compared him to Barack Obama, another young charismatic figure who was “good at making people feel like he agrees with them without really doing so”.

Rubio then spent 14 years in the Senate and was well respected there. His colleagues confirmed his appointment as Secretary of State with a landslide bipartisan vote, 99 to 0, although now some Democrats admit they regret it.

He became the first person since Henry Kissinger to simultaneously serve as National Security Advisor. He also leads USAID and until recently co-led the National Archives. One of Trump’s close aides described Rubio as a safe and reliable figure.

However, Rubio’s power is not as great as many of his predecessors. The institutions he leads are now much smaller after Trump cut budgets and purged experienced diplomats deemed not sufficiently MAGA.

Even some of the most sensitive issues, including negotiations with Israel, Arab countries, Iran, Russia, and Ukraine, are largely entrusted to Trump’s golfing friend, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

But a courtier would not complain about such treatment. He also does not expect to determine policy, but only to implement it. Rubio’s most important task is to always be near his leader, shuttling on Air Force One between Washington and Mar-a-Lago.

Such tasks are certainly exhausting. On long trips, to avoid being woken up at any time by Trump, Rubio sometimes covers himself with a blanket and pretends to be sleeping staff.

The Easily Changeable Marco

To rise and survive in Trump’s political world, Rubio must be hard yet flexible like a chameleon. When he was still a senator, he was one of the main supporters of bipartisan immigration reform, including providing a path for some illegal migrants to become legal. He also supported arming Ukraine to defend itself against Russia.

Now he serves a leader who favours mass deportations and appears soft towards Russian President Vladimir Putin. Because of that, some people doubt his sincerity. A Republican activist even mocked him as “the MAGA version of a drag queen”.

Rubio’s defenders say it is he who is holding Trump back from going too far. European governments see Rubio as one of the few Trump figures who can still be dealt with.