Manila's Ramos and Jakarta's Bambang - twin fates?

Manila's Ramos and Jakarta's Bambang - twin fates?

Rosemarie Francisco, Reuters/Manila

Fourteen months ago, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, then Indonesia's chief security minister, visited former Philippine president Fidel Ramos in his Manila home to get advice on whether to run for his country's top post.

Ramos told Reuters he gave Susilo three pointers during their two-hour talk: maintain your contact with the people, continue consultations with the military and police, and keep your record clean.

The advice seemed to pay off for Susilo as he swept to victory in Indonesia's first direct presidential elections.

Now, analysts are wondering what other lessons Ramos could have for Susilo as he gets to grips with problems dogging Southeast Asia's largest economy, including corruption, flagging foreign investment and high unemployment.

Ramos' presidency from 1992 to 1998 is widely seen as a bright spot in the Philippines' otherwise dismal economic record.

Ramos presided over fiscal surpluses in four out of his six years, implementing reforms that encouraged foreign investment and helped stave off a power crisis.

"There is a loss of investor confidence in Indonesia looking at the immediate past, but now I think that could be restored by the president-elect," Ramos said.

Ramos and Susilo share similar backgrounds -- both are former generals who served under discredited regimes, studied at U.S. schools, held key cabinet posts, and ran for the presidency under minority parties.

Both inherited governments from women rulers who marked a return to democracy but left underperforming economies.

"In terms of the circumstances, there are parallels. In terms of the personalities there might also be parallels," said Roberto de Ocampo, who was finance minister in the Ramos administration.

"Now what remains to be seen is whether their philosophy for getting the economy moving is also the same."

Susilo, whose campaign promises were firmer rule, more jobs and a cleaner government, has said he will present his policy agenda and cabinet after he takes his oath on Oct. 20.

Ramos started his term with huge hurdles -- Muslim and leftist insurgencies, a huge budget deficit, a power crisis, and daily street rallies triggered by high fuel costs.

"We had long brown-outs in metropolitan centers and this is the situation that Indonesia is facing because of much complacency on the part of their previous leaders," Ramos said.

Indonesia has started to suffer from rolling brown-outs as the state-run power sector struggles to meet rising power demand.

"All Susilo needs to do is to govern," said Stephen Wilford, Southeast Asia analyst of the Control Risks Group.

"If he's stating that his key aim for fixing the economy is to kickstart investment of domestic and foreign investors, the easy and most efficient way to do that is have a couple of quick fixes."

Wilford said that meant sorting out anomalies in mining sector regulation and fixing problems between state oil firm Pertamina and U.S. energy firm ChevronTexaco over gas exploration in the main island of Java.

"All of these are easy wins that will send a message to the business community that he is a pro-business president," he said.

Southeast Asia's largest economy is also one of the region's slow movers, still reeling from the devastation brought about by the 1997-1998 regional financial crisis.

Net foreign direct investment in Indonesia has been negative for the last six years, data from the Asian Development Bank show, and its external debt is among the highest in the region.

But Indonesia is also resource-rich, with oil and geothermal energy sources waiting to be tapped and a huge population that represents a big market for foreign investors, said de Ocampo, now president of the Asian Institute of Management.

Wilford said he expects Susilo to increase the military's budget, particularly for anti-terrorism, although a shift in focus from the police to military may hurt security operations.

De Ocampo said Susilo should focus on jump starting the economy if he wants to address terror and separatist problems.

"The roots of terrorism often times have to do with economic desperation," he said.

Susilo's commitment to fighting terror is vital not only to Indonesia but the rest of the region, Ramos said.

"We need Indonesia's success most of all in countering and prevailing over international terrorism here in Southeast Asia."