Manila's Ramos and Jakarta's Bambang - twin fates?

Manila's Ramos and Jakarta's Bambang - twin fates?

Rosemarie Francisco, Reuters/Manila

Fourteen months ago, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, then Indonesia's
chief security minister, visited former Philippine president
Fidel Ramos in his Manila home to get advice on whether to run
for his country's top post.

Ramos told Reuters he gave Susilo three pointers during their
two-hour talk: maintain your contact with the people, continue
consultations with the military and police, and keep your record
clean.

The advice seemed to pay off for Susilo as he swept to victory
in Indonesia's first direct presidential elections.

Now, analysts are wondering what other lessons Ramos could
have for Susilo as he gets to grips with problems dogging
Southeast Asia's largest economy, including corruption, flagging
foreign investment and high unemployment.

Ramos' presidency from 1992 to 1998 is widely seen as a bright
spot in the Philippines' otherwise dismal economic record.

Ramos presided over fiscal surpluses in four out of his six
years, implementing reforms that encouraged foreign investment
and helped stave off a power crisis.

"There is a loss of investor confidence in Indonesia looking
at the immediate past, but now I think that could be restored by
the president-elect," Ramos said.

Ramos and Susilo share similar backgrounds -- both are former
generals who served under discredited regimes, studied at U.S.
schools, held key cabinet posts, and ran for the presidency under
minority parties.

Both inherited governments from women rulers who marked a
return to democracy but left underperforming economies.

"In terms of the circumstances, there are parallels. In terms
of the personalities there might also be parallels," said Roberto
de Ocampo, who was finance minister in the Ramos administration.

"Now what remains to be seen is whether their philosophy for
getting the economy moving is also the same."

Susilo, whose campaign promises were firmer rule, more jobs
and a cleaner government, has said he will present his policy
agenda and cabinet after he takes his oath on Oct. 20.

Ramos started his term with huge hurdles -- Muslim and leftist
insurgencies, a huge budget deficit, a power crisis, and daily
street rallies triggered by high fuel costs.

"We had long brown-outs in metropolitan centers and this is
the situation that Indonesia is facing because of much
complacency on the part of their previous leaders," Ramos said.

Indonesia has started to suffer from rolling brown-outs as the
state-run power sector struggles to meet rising power demand.

"All Susilo needs to do is to govern," said Stephen Wilford,
Southeast Asia analyst of the Control Risks Group.

"If he's stating that his key aim for fixing the economy is to
kickstart investment of domestic and foreign investors, the easy
and most efficient way to do that is have a couple of quick
fixes."

Wilford said that meant sorting out anomalies in mining sector
regulation and fixing problems between state oil firm Pertamina
and U.S. energy firm ChevronTexaco over gas exploration in the
main island of Java.

"All of these are easy wins that will send a message to the
business community that he is a pro-business president," he said.

Southeast Asia's largest economy is also one of the region's
slow movers, still reeling from the devastation brought about by
the 1997-1998 regional financial crisis.

Net foreign direct investment in Indonesia has been negative
for the last six years, data from the Asian Development Bank
show, and its external debt is among the highest in the region.

But Indonesia is also resource-rich, with oil and geothermal
energy sources waiting to be tapped and a huge population that
represents a big market for foreign investors, said de Ocampo,
now president of the Asian Institute of Management.

Wilford said he expects Susilo to increase the military's
budget, particularly for anti-terrorism, although a shift in
focus from the police to military may hurt security operations.

De Ocampo said Susilo should focus on jump starting the
economy if he wants to address terror and separatist problems.

"The roots of terrorism often times have to do with economic
desperation," he said.

Susilo's commitment to fighting terror is vital not only to
Indonesia but the rest of the region, Ramos said.

"We need Indonesia's success most of all in countering and
prevailing over international terrorism here in Southeast Asia."