Manila's Ramos and Jakarta's Bambang - twin fates?<\/p>\n
Rosemarie Francisco, Reuters\/Manila<\/p>\n
Fourteen months ago, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, then Indonesia's
\nchief security minister, visited former Philippine president
\nFidel Ramos in his Manila home to get advice on whether to run
\nfor his country's top post.<\/p>\n
Ramos told Reuters he gave Susilo three pointers during their
\ntwo-hour talk: maintain your contact with the people, continue
\nconsultations with the military and police, and keep your record
\nclean.<\/p>\n
The advice seemed to pay off for Susilo as he swept to victory
\nin Indonesia's first direct presidential elections.<\/p>\n
Now, analysts are wondering what other lessons Ramos could
\nhave for Susilo as he gets to grips with problems dogging
\nSoutheast Asia's largest economy, including corruption, flagging
\nforeign investment and high unemployment.<\/p>\n
Ramos' presidency from 1992 to 1998 is widely seen as a bright
\nspot in the Philippines' otherwise dismal economic record.<\/p>\n
Ramos presided over fiscal surpluses in four out of his six
\nyears, implementing reforms that encouraged foreign investment
\nand helped stave off a power crisis.<\/p>\n
\"There is a loss of investor confidence in Indonesia looking
\nat the immediate past, but now I think that could be restored by
\nthe president-elect,\" Ramos said.<\/p>\n
Ramos and Susilo share similar backgrounds -- both are former
\ngenerals who served under discredited regimes, studied at U.S.
\nschools, held key cabinet posts, and ran for the presidency under
\nminority parties.<\/p>\n
Both inherited governments from women rulers who marked a
\nreturn to democracy but left underperforming economies.<\/p>\n
\"In terms of the circumstances, there are parallels. In terms
\nof the personalities there might also be parallels,\" said Roberto
\nde Ocampo, who was finance minister in the Ramos administration.<\/p>\n
\"Now what remains to be seen is whether their philosophy for
\ngetting the economy moving is also the same.\"<\/p>\n
Susilo, whose campaign promises were firmer rule, more jobs
\nand a cleaner government, has said he will present his policy
\nagenda and cabinet after he takes his oath on Oct. 20.<\/p>\n
Ramos started his term with huge hurdles -- Muslim and leftist
\ninsurgencies, a huge budget deficit, a power crisis, and daily
\nstreet rallies triggered by high fuel costs.<\/p>\n
\"We had long brown-outs in metropolitan centers and this is
\nthe situation that Indonesia is facing because of much
\ncomplacency on the part of their previous leaders,\" Ramos said.<\/p>\n
Indonesia has started to suffer from rolling brown-outs as the
\nstate-run power sector struggles to meet rising power demand.<\/p>\n
\"All Susilo needs to do is to govern,\" said Stephen Wilford,
\nSoutheast Asia analyst of the Control Risks Group.<\/p>\n
\"If he's stating that his key aim for fixing the economy is to
\nkickstart investment of domestic and foreign investors, the easy
\nand most efficient way to do that is have a couple of quick
\nfixes.\"<\/p>\n
Wilford said that meant sorting out anomalies in mining sector
\nregulation and fixing problems between state oil firm Pertamina
\nand U.S. energy firm ChevronTexaco over gas exploration in the
\nmain island of Java.<\/p>\n
\"All of these are easy wins that will send a message to the
\nbusiness community that he is a pro-business president,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Southeast Asia's largest economy is also one of the region's
\nslow movers, still reeling from the devastation brought about by
\nthe 1997-1998 regional financial crisis.<\/p>\n
Net foreign direct investment in Indonesia has been negative
\nfor the last six years, data from the Asian Development Bank
\nshow, and its external debt is among the highest in the region.<\/p>\n
But Indonesia is also resource-rich, with oil and geothermal
\nenergy sources waiting to be tapped and a huge population that
\nrepresents a big market for foreign investors, said de Ocampo,
\nnow president of the Asian Institute of Management.<\/p>\n
Wilford said he expects Susilo to increase the military's
\nbudget, particularly for anti-terrorism, although a shift in
\nfocus from the police to military may hurt security operations.<\/p>\n
De Ocampo said Susilo should focus on jump starting the
\neconomy if he wants to address terror and separatist problems.<\/p>\n
\"The roots of terrorism often times have to do with economic
\ndesperation,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Susilo's commitment to fighting terror is vital not only to
\nIndonesia but the rest of the region, Ramos said.<\/p>\n
\"We need Indonesia's success most of all in countering and
\nprevailing over international terrorism here in Southeast Asia.\"<\/p>",
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