Malaysian elections in 2000? Don't bet on it

Malaysian elections in 2000? Don't bet on it

By Nelson Graves

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad says he wants to wait until the sex trial of his former deputy Anwar Ibrahim is over before calling elections.

Most expect the plodding trial to last at least until the end of the year. So polls in 2000? Perhaps not.

"Mahathir has a knack of throwing red herrings," said a political analyst with a local think tank.

A Western diplomat said: "He may be being deliberately misleading."

Mahathir continues to keep the electorate guessing over the timing of polls. He said on Sept. 18 that he needed more information before deciding, and that he had until mid-2000.

Three days later, he said he could call polls anytime.

On Wednesday he was quoted in the Asian Wall Street Journal as saying he wanted to wait until Anwar's sodomy trial is over.

Anwar's corruption trial took 5-months.

The sex trial has already been going for 3-months and the defense has not called a single witness.

The trial has convened for only half a day since Sept. 10 when Anwar was taken to hospital after alleging he had arsenic poisoning.

"We can win now, but we want a two-thirds majority. That means we'd have a strong government," Mahathir told the Journal.

Coming from a leader who won a thumping four-fifths majority in the previous election in 1995, Mahathir's remarks struck some as a stark admission that a two-thirds majority is in doubt.

"What is really revealing about Mahathir's comments is they denote a reservation on his part due to the Anwar factor," the political analyst said.

Without political polls, it is difficult to gauge electoral swings in this country of 22 million people.

But Mahathir's comments were his clearest admission yet that Anwar has dented the governing coalition's ambitions, at least for now.

The prime minister has repeatedly let down pundits, including many in the financial markets, who have predicted snap polls.

Many had expected him to capitalize on news that Malaysia's recession had ended and hold elections in September.

Now many foresee him striking in November, before the country goes into virtual hibernation in December and January during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadhan and Chinese New Year.

Newspaper editors are said to have been told to expect polls in November. Many expect an announcement after Mahathir returns from a trip overseas next week to attend a meeting of his party's Supreme Council.

Conventional wisdom says the prime minister is wary of holding elections in 2000 because more than 600,000 new voters will join the rolls as of Jan. 1.

Many of those are young citizens, perhaps more inclined to side with Anwar who at 52 comes from another generation than the 73-year-old prime minister.

But members of Mahathir's coalition in recent days have said they believe the vast majority of young people would vote for Mahathir's Barisan Nasional (National Front) because to many it represents stability.

The Singapore Straits Times said this week that Barisan Nasional insiders expect to win more than 55 percent of the vote in 140 of 192 constituencies. That would yield more than 70 percent of the seats.

Still, anecdotal evidence points to open dissatisfaction with Mahathir's coalition in both the Moslem Malay and Chinese communities, both crucial to his election prospects.

Opposition rallies are packed. A Chinese petition with veiled criticism of the government has collected the signatures of more than 1,800 organizations.

A stream of criticism flows through the Internet.

Thousands of Anwar's supporters took to the streets this month -- a year after he all but disappeared behind bars.

Many still expect Mahathir to retain a two-thirds majority -- more a psychological than constitutional threshold -- although the fate of some state assemblies, also up for grabs, remains in doubt.

Currently the opposition controls only one state, Kelantan, where the Islamic fundamentalist PAS rules. Opposition politicians say another two or three might swing this time.

In that case, the electorate would deliver a verdict that strengthens the opposition without shifting federal power and sends a loud warning signal to a coalition that has ruled Malaysia ever since independence in 1957.