Malaysian elections in 2000? Don't bet on it<\/p>\n
By Nelson Graves<\/p>\n
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir
\nMohamad says he wants to wait until the sex trial of his former
\ndeputy Anwar Ibrahim is over before calling elections.<\/p>\n
Most expect the plodding trial to last at least until the end
\nof the year. So polls in 2000? Perhaps not.<\/p>\n
\"Mahathir has a knack of throwing red herrings,\" said a
\npolitical analyst with a local think tank.<\/p>\n
A Western diplomat said: \"He may be being deliberately
\nmisleading.\"<\/p>\n
Mahathir continues to keep the electorate guessing over the
\ntiming of polls. He said on Sept. 18 that he needed more
\ninformation before deciding, and that he had until mid-2000.<\/p>\n
Three days later, he said he could call polls anytime.<\/p>\n
On Wednesday he was quoted in the Asian Wall Street Journal as
\nsaying he wanted to wait until Anwar's sodomy trial is over.<\/p>\n
Anwar's corruption trial took 5-months.<\/p>\n
The sex trial has already been going for 3-months and the
\ndefense has not called a single witness.<\/p>\n
The trial has convened for only half a day since Sept. 10 when
\nAnwar was taken to hospital after alleging he had arsenic
\npoisoning.<\/p>\n
\"We can win now, but we want a two-thirds majority. That means
\nwe'd have a strong government,\" Mahathir told the Journal.<\/p>\n
Coming from a leader who won a thumping four-fifths majority
\nin the previous election in 1995, Mahathir's remarks struck some
\nas a stark admission that a two-thirds majority is in doubt.<\/p>\n
\"What is really revealing about Mahathir's comments is they
\ndenote a reservation on his part due to the Anwar factor,\" the
\npolitical analyst said.<\/p>\n
Without political polls, it is difficult to gauge electoral
\nswings in this country of 22 million people.<\/p>\n
But Mahathir's comments were his clearest admission yet that
\nAnwar has dented the governing coalition's ambitions, at least
\nfor now.<\/p>\n
The prime minister has repeatedly let down pundits, including
\nmany in the financial markets, who have predicted snap polls.<\/p>\n
Many had expected him to capitalize on news that Malaysia's
\nrecession had ended and hold elections in September.<\/p>\n
Now many foresee him striking in November, before the country
\ngoes into virtual hibernation in December and January during the
\nMuslim fasting month of Ramadhan and Chinese New Year.<\/p>\n
Newspaper editors are said to have been told to expect polls
\nin November. Many expect an announcement after Mahathir returns
\nfrom a trip overseas next week to attend a meeting of his party's
\nSupreme Council.<\/p>\n
Conventional wisdom says the prime minister is wary of holding
\nelections in 2000 because more than 600,000 new voters will join
\nthe rolls as of Jan. 1.<\/p>\n
Many of those are young citizens, perhaps more inclined to
\nside with Anwar who at 52 comes from another generation than the
\n73-year-old prime minister.<\/p>\n
But members of Mahathir's coalition in recent days have said
\nthey believe the vast majority of young people would vote for
\nMahathir's Barisan Nasional (National Front) because to many it
\nrepresents stability.<\/p>\n
The Singapore Straits Times said this week that Barisan
\nNasional insiders expect to win more than 55 percent of the vote
\nin 140 of 192 constituencies. That would yield more than 70
\npercent of the seats.<\/p>\n
Still, anecdotal evidence points to open dissatisfaction with
\nMahathir's coalition in both the Moslem Malay and Chinese
\ncommunities, both crucial to his election prospects.<\/p>\n
Opposition rallies are packed. A Chinese petition with veiled
\ncriticism of the government has collected the signatures of more
\nthan 1,800 organizations.<\/p>\n
A stream of criticism flows through the Internet.<\/p>\n
Thousands of Anwar's supporters took to the streets this month
\n-- a year after he all but disappeared behind bars.<\/p>\n
Many still expect Mahathir to retain a two-thirds majority --
\nmore a psychological than constitutional threshold -- although
\nthe fate of some state assemblies, also up for grabs, remains in
\ndoubt.<\/p>\n
Currently the opposition controls only one state, Kelantan,
\nwhere the Islamic fundamentalist PAS rules. Opposition
\npoliticians say another two or three might swing this time.<\/p>\n
In that case, the electorate would deliver a verdict that
\nstrengthens the opposition without shifting federal power and
\nsends a loud warning signal to a coalition that has ruled
\nMalaysia ever since independence in 1957.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/malaysian-elections-in-2000-dont-bet-on-it-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}