Major Investor Bets US$760 Million on Oil Price Drop

Major investors placed a bet worth US$760 million on a decline in oil prices about 20 minutes before Iran’s foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday.

The large bet was made amid anticipation of important announcements during the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between the United States (US) and Iran.

Citing Channel News Asia on Monday (20/4/2026), the large transaction at the precise time in recent months has raised concerns among US parliament members and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may provide an edge to some traders in the volatile and opaque derivatives market.

According to Reuters, based on LSEG data, investors sold a total of 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures contracts between 12:24 GMT and 12:25 GMT. At the prevailing price at the time, the transaction was worth around US$760 million.

Subsequently, Iran’s Foreign Minister announced on his X account at 12:45 GMT that the shipping route for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was fully open for the remainder of the ceasefire period, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon.

The announcement caused crude oil prices to drop by up to 11% that day in the following minutes. Reuters reported that on 7 April, a transaction worth around US$950 million occurred just a few hours before the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire.

On 23 March, investors sold oil futures contracts worth US$500 million 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump announced a delay in attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, triggering a 15% drop in crude oil prices.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is now investigating a series of oil futures contract trades, including those on 23 March and 7 April, which occurred just before major policy changes by Trump regarding the war in Iran.