Major discoveries increasingly rare as science loses ' disruptors'

Major discoveries increasingly rare as science loses ’ disruptors’

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The scientific world today produces more research than ever before. Academic papers continue to multiply, new journals emerge, and global research funding grows. Yet amid this explosion, a question scientists increasingly debate arises: why are major discoveries becoming r?

A 2026 study in the journal Science found a striking pattern. The longer a scientist’s career, the less likely they are to produce ’ disruptive’ research that fundamentally shifts their field. Conversely, many senior researchers produce work that remains important but often extends existing theories rather than challenging them.

The findings reinforce concerns that have emerged in recent years. Modern science is increasingly incremental. Knowledge grows, but major leaps appear less frequent.

The study analysed the careers of approximately 12.5 million scientists publishing papers between 1960 and 2020. The results were consistent across fields from mathematics to medicine. Younger researchers more often produced ’ disruptive’ papers, defined as those significantly displacing previous work and opening new avenues rather than building on existing ideas.

The likelihood of producing such work is highest early in a career and gradually declines as an academic’s age advances. ’ Science is becoming less transformative,’ the researchers wrote.

One of the most striking patterns emerged from how scientists select references. The study found that papers most cited by researchers typically stem from the early stages of their own careers. Consequently, the longer someone stays in academia, the older their foundational ideas become.

This trend became more pronounced in the US after mandatory retirement for professors at 70 was abolished in 1994. Compared to British academics, who faced a retirement age of 65 at the time, US scholars began citing older papers more frequently.

Senior researchers also more often critiqued new studies using older theories as a benchmark, while their own work was less frequently explicitly challenged.

The findings also have geopolitical implications. Nations with younger populations of scientists tend to produce a higher proportion of ’ disruptive’ papers compared to countries with ageing academic communities. In the study’s charts, China, India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh showed relatively higher rates of disruptive research than the US or Japan.

This suggests that global technological competition isn’t solely about research funding or lab numbers; the age structure of scientists is becoming a critical factor. ’ Younger generations are more likely to open new research pathways,’ the study noted.

Modern science is increasingly seen as ’ safe.’ Many researchers argue the academic system now encourages ’ safe’ research. pressures to publish, compete for funding, and advance careers drive scientists toward projects with high likelihood of success rather than high-risk, high-reward ideas.

Yet many of history’s major discoveries emerged from experiments initially deemed odd or contrarian. This is precisely what makes the findings so compelling.

The modern world produces more knowledge than ever, yet some scientists question whether today’s science is bold enough to truly uncover something new.