Major discoveries increasingly rare as science loses \u2019\ndisruptors\u2019<\/p>\n
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The scientific world today produces more\nresearch than ever before. Academic papers continue to multiply, new\njournals emerge, and global research funding grows. Yet amid this\nexplosion, a question scientists increasingly debate arises: why are\nmajor discoveries becoming r?<\/p>\n
A 2026 study in the journal Science found a striking pattern. The\nlonger a scientist\u2019s career, the less likely they are to produce \u2019\ndisruptive\u2019 research that fundamentally shifts their field. Conversely,\nmany senior researchers produce work that remains important but often\nextends existing theories rather than challenging them.<\/p>\n
The findings reinforce concerns that have emerged in recent years.\nModern science is increasingly incremental. Knowledge grows, but major\nleaps appear less frequent.<\/p>\n
The study analysed the careers of approximately 12.5 million\nscientists publishing papers between 1960 and 2020. The results were\nconsistent across fields from mathematics to medicine. Younger\nresearchers more often produced \u2019 disruptive\u2019 papers, defined as those\nsignificantly displacing previous work and opening new avenues rather\nthan building on existing ideas.<\/p>\n
The likelihood of producing such work is highest early in a career\nand gradually declines as an academic\u2019s age advances. \u2019 Science is\nbecoming less transformative,\u2019 the researchers wrote.<\/p>\n
One of the most striking patterns emerged from how scientists select\nreferences. The study found that papers most cited by researchers\ntypically stem from the early stages of their own careers. Consequently,\nthe longer someone stays in academia, the older their foundational ideas\nbecome.<\/p>\n
This trend became more pronounced in the US after mandatory\nretirement for professors at 70 was abolished in 1994. Compared to\nBritish academics, who faced a retirement age of 65 at the time, US\nscholars began citing older papers more frequently.<\/p>\n
Senior researchers also more often critiqued new studies using older\ntheories as a benchmark, while their own work was less frequently\nexplicitly challenged.<\/p>\n
The findings also have geopolitical implications. Nations with\nyounger populations of scientists tend to produce a higher proportion of\n\u2019 disruptive\u2019 papers compared to countries with ageing academic\ncommunities. In the study\u2019s charts, China, India, Indonesia, and\nBangladesh showed relatively higher rates of disruptive research than\nthe US or Japan.<\/p>\n
This suggests that global technological competition isn\u2019t solely\nabout research funding or lab numbers; the age structure of scientists\nis becoming a critical factor. \u2019 Younger generations are more likely to\nopen new research pathways,\u2019 the study noted.<\/p>\n
Modern science is increasingly seen as \u2019 safe.\u2019 Many researchers\nargue the academic system now encourages \u2019 safe\u2019 research. pressures to\npublish, compete for funding, and advance careers drive scientists\ntoward projects with high likelihood of success rather than high-risk,\nhigh-reward ideas.<\/p>\n
Yet many of history\u2019s major discoveries emerged from experiments\ninitially deemed odd or contrarian. This is precisely what makes the\nfindings so compelling.<\/p>\n
The modern world produces more knowledge than ever, yet some\nscientists question whether today\u2019s science is bold enough to truly\nuncover something new.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/major-discoveries-increasingly-rare-as-science-loses-disruptors-1779976310", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }