Maintaining Food Security Productivity Amid El Niño Threats
Cilacap (ANTARA) - Rain still falling at the end of March 2026 seems to offer a respite before the threat of El Niño, which triggers prolonged dry spells, truly arrives in various parts of Indonesia, including Central Java.
In several southern Central Java regions, such as Banyumas and Cilacap Regencies, the sky remains frequently overcast, the soil is still wet, and water flow in irrigation channels has not yet subsided due to recent rains over the past few days, following a nearly week-long period of clear and hot weather.
For farmers and policymakers, this situation serves as a reminder that preparation time for the dry season is increasingly limited as the transitional inter-seasonal period or pancaroba approaches. Forecasts of an impending long dry season are urging the government and farmers in Central Java to accelerate planting and optimise water resources to ensure food production remains productive and secure.
The 2026 dry season is projected to be longer and drier, triggered by the El Niño phenomenon strengthening in the Pacific region. El Niño is known to suppress rainfall, increase air temperatures, and hinder crop growth. With an anticipated longer duration, the threat to food security becomes tangible.
The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has released dry season projections as guidance for the government and farmers. Head of the BMKG Tunggul Wulung Meteorology Station’s Data and Information Dissemination Working Team in Cilacap, Teguh Wardoyo, stated that the onset of the dry season in southern Central Java typically occurs in May 2026.
In Cilacap Regency, the dry season is expected to begin in the second decade of May, while southeastern coastal areas, such as Binangun and Nusawungu Sub-districts, may enter the dry season earlier, in the first decade of May. The dry season duration is estimated at 140-180 days, peaking in August 2026.
Banyumas Regency will face the dry season onset gradually. Southeastern areas are projected to experience dryness in the first decade of May, followed by southwestern and southern regions in the second decade of May. Northern and central Banyumas areas will enter the dry season in the second decade of June, with durations of 110-180 days.
Meanwhile, in Purbalingga Regency, the dry season is forecasted to start in the first decade of June in northern areas, expanding to the northwest and south in the second decade, with a duration of about 120 days.
“What needs attention is the nature of this year’s dry season, which is below normal, meaning rainfall is lower than the climatological average,” said Teguh.
This prediction differs from the previous year, as in 2025, several southern Central Java regions experienced rain almost year-round, without a clear dry period. However, this year the pattern is reversing, with a tendency towards drier conditions.
Globally, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), or the phenomenon of interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific Ocean that causes periodic but irregular global climate variations affecting weather conditions in Indonesia, is currently in a neutral phase with an index of minus 0.28, but the likelihood of El Niño development is quite high in the early second semester of 2026.
Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or the phenomenon of interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Indian Ocean marked by differences in sea surface temperatures between the western region (near East Africa) and the eastern region (near Indonesia and Australia), is also in a neutral condition, expected to persist until mid-year. Indonesia’s sea surface temperatures are projected to be normal to warmer, between 0.5-2 degrees Celsius.
Forecasts of the Australian monsoon dominance starting in May 2026 will bring dry air masses to southern Indonesia, including Central Java. This combination of factors increases the potential for a prolonged dry season with widespread impacts, particularly on the agriculture sector that heavily relies on water.