Mahathir on firm ground a year after Anwar's ouster

Mahathir on firm ground a year after Anwar's ouster

By M. Jegathesan

KUALA LUMPUR (AFP): Almost one year after sacking his heir
apparent and sparking Malaysia's biggest anti-government protests
in decades, both supporters and opponents say Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad's position in his ruling party is strong.

What is less clear, opponents say, is how much support
Mahathir's moves against Anwar Ibrahim cost him among the Malay
majority in the run-up to a general election.

The 74-year-old leader Tuesday watched a national day parade
alongside King Salahuddin. And supporters from his United Malays
National Organization (UMNO), which heads the ruling National
Front coalition, described his position in the party as "very
strong."

Ibrahim Ali, deputy minister in the prime minister's
department, told AFP Mahathir had consolidated his power
following the Anwar issue.

"The prime minister is very strong. UMNO is ready to face the
election," he said. Malaysia must hold an election by next June
but Mahathir is widely expected to call a snap poll as the
economy recovers from recession.

Ibrahim said there had been a change of mood among young
people who had previously criticized Mahathir for Anwar's
removal.

"The economic recovery, coupled with their realization that
Anwar's allegations (of corruption and croynism) are untrue, is
clearing all the confusion," he said.

Ibrahim said he was pleasantly surprised to see so many young
people at the national day celebration.

Mahathir sacked Anwar, 52, as deputy premier and finance
minister on Sep. 2. A defiant Anwar then launched a reform
movement calling for the premier's ousting,

But after a demonstration on Sept. 20 outside the National
Mosque which attracted tens of thousands of people, Anwar was
arrested under the draconian Internal Security Act which allows
detention without trial.

In April he was jailed for six years for abuse of power and is
now on trial on a new charge of sodomy.

For several weeks street demonstrations calling for his
release and Mahathir's resignation were common but tough action
by police put an end to them.

"Mahathir's position within the party is unchallenged," agreed
Jomo Sundram, a lecturer at University Malaya.

"I don't think he will quit. Don't count on him to retire. He
is indispensable in his own eyes. He is in for the long haul."

"But within the country, Mahathir has lost legitimacy from
Malays in particular and increasingly from the Chinese and
Indians."

Malays make up slightly more than half the 22 million
population.

"How legitimate is Mahathir's government? -- It is pretty
bad," said Jomo.

Syed Husin Ali, chairman of the small opposition Malaysia
People's Party, said the memory of Anwar's treatment "is still
strong."

"The sense of injustice and anger is still deep among the
Malays," he said.

Syed Husin said Malays blame Mahathir for economic and
political uncertainties during the last year. One Sept. 1
Mahathir imposed controversial currency controls and pegged the
value of the ringgit -- a move which helped spark a final breach
with Anwar, seen as more sympathetic to traditional economic
nostrums.

Mahathir may be firm in his political position but he has not
drowned all that anger, said Syed Husin.

"There is no clear show of support for Mahathir. Malaysians
really don't express their feelings. It is difficult to gauge
their deep sense of resentment. Let's wait for the elections," he
said.

Syed Husin said fewer people displayed the national flag at
this year's celebrations. Another witness said fewer cars flew
the flag this year compared to last, even though the country was
deep in economic crisis last year.

"No one in the party (UMNO) will dare challenge Mahathir at
this moment," a Western diplomat said.

"But internationally Mahathir has become unpopular. I don't
think any Western head will make a bilateral visit to Malaysia.

"While Anwar's political position over the last one year has
weakened (since he is in jail), Mahathir has become a drag on his
own party," the diplomat added.

"The proof of the pudding will be the election. The outcome of
the election will determine when Mahathir will step down."