Luhut Says US-Israel War Against Iran Won’t End Within a Month

JAKARTA — Luhut Binsar Panjaitan, chairman of the National Economic Council, said the war between the United States and Israel against Iran is unlikely to end soon. He estimated the conflict could last more than a month.

Luhut said he did not know precisely how the United States would respond going forward. He noted that Iran remained resolute even after several of its leaders were killed.

‘I do not think this war will finish in four weeks or within a month,’ Luhut said in a post on his private Instagram, quoted on Thursday (5 March 2026).

Luhut also assessed Iran’s resilience, evident in its ability to withstand embargoes for almost four decades. That factor, he said, should be taken into account when formulating Indonesia’s foreign policy.

‘We should not become enemies with it; there is no use in that. So as a non-aligned, non-bloc country, Indonesia must be careful in shaping its foreign policy,’ he added.

Luhut also highlighted the impact of the conflict on Indonesia’s economy, particularly national energy reserves. He warned of the risk to the economy if world oil prices surge to 100 US dollars per barrel.

World crude oil prices are currently around 78 US dollars per barrel, higher than Indonesia’s crude price assumption in the 2026 state budget of 70 US dollars per barrel.

‘Hormuz affects it, you know, how big is the impact? How many days of our strategic oil reserves, our energy? If Hormuz were closed, how much? So contingency plans must be prepared,’ he said.

He stressed the importance of accurate data on national oil reserves to guide anticipatory steps.

‘I only checked yesterday; they say it could be 30 days, could be 18 days. We must calculate carefully now,’ he insisted.

Luhut said the National Economic Council continues to study various inputs to formulate policy recommendations. The government is also exploring alternative oil-import sources from other countries to reduce dependence on conflict-prone regions.

‘For instance with America, and with whom else should we look? Could Venezuela also be able to supply? Venezuela is now a source of energy for the United States itself. What about African countries?’ he said.