Luhut Predicts the US–Israel–Iran War Will Persist
Chairman of the National Economic Council Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan predicted that the war between Iran and the United States allied with Israel would not end soon. Luhut shared this view via his Instagram account, @luhut.pandjaitan, on Friday, 6 March 2026.
The former Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs explained that Iran is a nation that has never been colonised for thousands of years. Various battles in history have shown that Iran is a fighting nation that is not easily defeated.
Iran’s steadfastness was also evident from the American attack that killed several Iranian leaders, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rather than weakening, Iran’s retaliatory attacks have become more intense.
Luhut estimates that the war will last at least for a month to come. “I do not see the war ending in four weeks or one month, because even though some of their leaders have been killed, there are no signs of weakness,” he said.
Luhut noted that American weaponry is indeed superior. Some attacks by Iran also appear to have declined. However, Luhut doubted that U.S. pressure could shake the resolve of the Iranian nation, so a regime change as desired by the US could be realised.
“If all Iran’s weapon systems could be destroyed—its missiles, drones, production and others—could it not bring about a regime change? If that does not happen, the war will be prolonged,” he said.
On the other hand, according to Luhut, the United States would also think many times before deploying ground forces to speed up Iran’s defeat. Because such a move would carry the risk of many casualties. “America will think ten times before sending ground forces there. Because there will surely be many casualties, and the American people will surely be angry.”
On that basis, Luhut argued that Indonesia must be careful in determining its steps in facing this situation. He also urged Indonesia not to take sides with either camp involved in the conflict.
“As a non-aligned country, Indonesia must indeed be careful in formulating its foreign policy. Because this will impact the economy,” he said.
Luhut reminded that the energy sector, especially oil supplies, would be among the most affected sectors. “One thing I keep monitoring from the escalation of tensions is the potential disruption to energy distribution routes such as in the Strait of Hormuz. That, of course, will have an immediate impact on oil supplies and national economic stability,” he added.