LPEM UI Survey: Nearly Half of Economists Report Economic Deterioration

JAKARTA — Economic experts have assessed Indonesia’s economic conditions as deteriorating compared to the previous quarter.

This finding emerged from the Institute for Economic and Social Research at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI) First Semester 2026 Survey.

Of 85 respondents, 41 or approximately 48 per cent stated that economic conditions have worsened. Approximately 32 experts or 38 per cent assessed that economic conditions remain unchanged. Only 12 respondents or approximately 14 per cent believed conditions have improved.

“The average response score of -0.39 reflects the tendency of experts to assess the economy as deteriorating or stagnant, with a high confidence score of 7.37 out of 10,” according to the LPEM Expert Economist Survey for the First Semester 2026.

This result is consistent with previous surveys conducted in October and March 2025. Over three consecutive surveys spanning 18 months, experts have assessed that Indonesia’s economic conditions have not demonstrated improvement.

Regarding inflation, 57 of 85 respondents or approximately 67 per cent assessed that inflation is increasing. Approximately 23 experts or 27 per cent believed inflation remains unchanged. Only 5 respondents or approximately 6 per cent assessed that inflationary pressures are easing.

The average response was recorded at +0.71, indicating a strong tendency towards increased inflationary pressures. This condition has the potential to erode household purchasing power as the prices of goods and services increase. This result also shows an increase from the previous survey’s average of +0.47. The respondents’ confidence score regarding this assessment reached 7.60 out of 10.

Concerning the labour market, 44 of 85 respondents or approximately 56 per cent assessed that labour market conditions are tightening. Approximately 30 respondents or 35 per cent believed conditions remain unchanged. Only 11 respondents or approximately 13 per cent assessed that the labour market is easing.

The average response was recorded at -0.55. This figure indicates labour market conditions tend towards stagnation with considerable concern. The respondents’ confidence score regarding this assessment reached 7.46 out of 10.