LPEM UI Survey: Nearly Half of Economists Project Economic Growth to Stagnate Ahead

Jakarta — Economists are projecting that Indonesia’s economic growth over the next three months will likely stagnate. This finding is contained in the Institute for Economic and Social Research of the Faculty of Economics and Business at the University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI) First Semester 2026 Economist Survey.

Of 85 respondents, 36 economists, or approximately 42 per cent, predict that the pace of economic growth will remain unchanged from current conditions. Some 28 experts, or around 33 per cent, estimate that conditions will deteriorate. Meanwhile, 21 experts, or approximately 25 per cent, predict that economic growth will improve.

“The average response score of -0.11 sits precisely at the neutral point, reflecting the collective expectation of general stagnation with a slight downward tendency,” the LPEM Economist Survey for the First Semester of 2026 stated.

Respondents’ confidence score was recorded at 7.47 out of 10. The report notes that weak growth prospects are typically associated with stagnant business activity and more cautious household consumption. “Weak growth prospects generally lead to stagnant business activity and cautious consumer spending in the coming months,” the report said.

This figure represents a slight improvement compared to the previous survey, which recorded an average response score of -0.13. However, the difference is considered minimal and does not yet indicate a meaningful shift in sentiment.

Regarding inflation, 64 of the 85 respondents, or approximately 75 per cent, predict that inflationary pressure will increase. Some 18 respondents, or around 21 per cent, estimate that inflation will remain unchanged. Only 3 respondents, or approximately 4 per cent, predict that inflationary pressure will ease.

The average response score was recorded at +0.91, with a confidence score of 7.60 out of 10. This figure indicates strong consensus among economists regarding increased inflationary pressure. Experts link this projection to global geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains and energy markets. Such disruptions are considered potentially capable of triggering price increases domestically.

This figure has increased compared to the previous survey’s average, which was recorded at +0.55.