LPEM UI Survey: Economists View Indonesian Economic Conditions as Deteriorating

The Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI) has released its Expert Economist Survey for the First Semester of 2026. In the survey, 41 of 85 economists, equivalent to 48 per cent, assessed that Indonesia’s current economic conditions have deteriorated compared to the previous quarter.

Breaking this down, 35 economists reported that economic conditions had worsened and 6 stated they had become significantly worse. Meanwhile, 32 economists reported that conditions remained unchanged compared to three months earlier. The remaining 12 economists assessed that conditions had improved compared to three months prior.

“This result remains consistent with perceptions from previous surveys conducted in October and March 2025, demonstrating that after three consecutive surveys over an 18-month period, experts continue to believe that Indonesia’s economic conditions have shown no signs of improvement,” the LPEM UI team stated in its report.

Economists assessed that inflationary pressures on the economy are intensifying. As many as 57 economists (67 per cent) believed inflation has increased, whilst 23 (27 per cent) saw it as unchanged, and only 5 (6 per cent) assessed it as easing.

In evaluating current labour market conditions, 44 economists (56 per cent) assessed that the labour market has tightened compared to three months earlier. “Weakening labour market conditions generally signal rising unemployment and constrained wage growth, which pressures household incomes across the country,” the LPEM UI team stated.

Regarding the business environment, 38 economists (45 per cent) assessed that conditions have worsened. This was followed by 25 economists (29 per cent) who saw it as unchanged, and 14 (16 per cent) who assessed it as significantly worse.

The survey was conducted from 24 February to 9 March 2026 through an online survey platform. The sample consisted of 85 economists from diverse backgrounds, including academics, research institutions, the private sector, and multinational organisations.

Respondents came from various regions across Indonesia: Jakarta, West Java, Yogyakarta, Central Java, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Banten, Gorontalo, Bali, North Maluku, South Kalimantan, Lampung, East Java, and Jambi. Additionally, respondents from overseas included economists from Australia, England, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, and China, as well as representatives from multinational institutions.