Lopa: The gods have spoken?

Lopa: The gods have spoken?

By Peter Milne

JAKARTA (JP): The sad and totally unexpected death of recently
appointed Attorney General Baharuddin Lopa is a devastating blow
to President Abdurrahman Wahid's strategy of keeping his
political opponents at bay and surviving beyond August.

Lopa was one of the most widely respected Indonesian
politicians because of his integrity and courage in fearlessly
taking on some of the more daunting and powerful corruptors in
the land. Whether or not his latest investigations into three
legislators, Arifin Panigoro (Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle), Akbar Tandjung (Golkar) and Nurdin Halid (Golkar) were
politically motivated or not, the heat is now off Abdurrahman's
enemies.

Lopa will be almost impossible to replace, certainly within a
time frame that would allow the President to continue with the
implementation of his previous strategy. Not only does the loss
of Lopa throw that set of options for survival into disarray, it
comes just one day after Abdurrahman revealed to a gathering of
senior military officers from the Institute of National
Resilience (Lemhannas) that he had "protested to God" about the
unfairness of his predicament.

In what remains a highly superstitious nation, many
Indonesians, probably including Abdurrahman himself, will see the
untimely death of Lopa as an irrefutable sign that the gods are
no longer backing Abdurrahman. This "sign" comes just one week
after similar connections were also made to the mechanical
trouble that caused the president's plane to touch down in Darwin
instead of Sydney on his recent trip to Australia. Regardless of
the logic or validity of such perceptions, they are nonetheless
of great relevance in an Indonesian context.

While the loss of Lopa is undoubtedly a tragedy for Indonesia,
given the dearth of such public figures able to put the country's
interests so clearly beyond their own, there may be one silver
lining. Bearing in mind the Indonesian cultural perspective, the
crucial nature and timing of Lopa's disappearance from the scene
may have a profound effect on the President's approach to the
looming confrontation with the People's Consultative Assembly,
now just three weeks away.

While the loss of Lopa certainly removes from the arena one of
Indonesia's best sons, the message it imparts could also have the
effect of weakening Abdurrahman's steadfast resolve to hang on to
power at all costs. Not only is his strategy all but unworkable
now that this vital lever has been removed, but the President may
now accept that the gods have spoken.

He may be more prepared to accept a compromise that finally
allows the executive powers he has been so resolute in guarding
to be handed to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri. Such
considerations would be unworthy of mention in most developed
countries, but this is Indonesia. Here, mystical powers are
perceived to be pervasive. Both Soeharto before him and
Abdurrahman have their favorite dukun (shaman possessing mystical
powers). Even the leading article in The Jakarta Post two days
after Lopa's death used the words "black magic" in referring to
the attorney general's passing away.

It may be that the potential conflict that Indonesia faces can
be averted thanks to such perceptions. Abdurrahman's confidence
may wane and he could instruct his lobbyists to accept the best
offer going. Lopa's final gift to the nation could be in helping
the President to realize the futility of further fighting and
sparing Indonesians the prospect of the President turning his
threats of a state of emergency, possible disintegration and
other "dire consequences" into reality.

Of course, none of the country's fundamental problems will
have been resolved. But at least Indonesia will have an
opportunity to move on without tearing itself apart in the
process. That would be a small victory for Indonesia's painful
transition. We hope that President Abdurrahman is listening to
the gods ... and to his loyal combatant Baharuddin Lopa?

The writer is managing editor of the Van Zorge Report,
published by the Jakarta-based political risk consultancy firm
Van Zorge Heffernan & Associates.