Lopa: The gods have spoken?

By Peter Milne

JAKARTA (JP): The sad and totally unexpected death of recently appointed Attorney General Baharuddin Lopa is a devastating blow to President Abdurrahman Wahid's strategy of keeping his political opponents at bay and surviving beyond August.

Lopa was one of the most widely respected Indonesian politicians because of his integrity and courage in fearlessly taking on some of the more daunting and powerful corruptors in the land. Whether or not his latest investigations into three legislators, Arifin Panigoro (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle), Akbar Tandjung (Golkar) and Nurdin Halid (Golkar) were politically motivated or not, the heat is now off Abdurrahman's enemies.

Lopa will be almost impossible to replace, certainly within a time frame that would allow the President to continue with the implementation of his previous strategy. Not only does the loss of Lopa throw that set of options for survival into disarray, it comes just one day after Abdurrahman revealed to a gathering of senior military officers from the Institute of National Resilience (Lemhannas) that he had "protested to God" about the unfairness of his predicament.

In what remains a highly superstitious nation, many Indonesians, probably including Abdurrahman himself, will see the untimely death of Lopa as an irrefutable sign that the gods are no longer backing Abdurrahman. This "sign" comes just one week after similar connections were also made to the mechanical trouble that caused the president's plane to touch down in Darwin instead of Sydney on his recent trip to Australia. Regardless of the logic or validity of such perceptions, they are nonetheless of great relevance in an Indonesian context.

While the loss of Lopa is undoubtedly a tragedy for Indonesia, given the dearth of such public figures able to put the country's interests so clearly beyond their own, there may be one silver lining. Bearing in mind the Indonesian cultural perspective, the crucial nature and timing of Lopa's disappearance from the scene may have a profound effect on the President's approach to the looming confrontation with the People's Consultative Assembly, now just three weeks away.

While the loss of Lopa certainly removes from the arena one of Indonesia's best sons, the message it imparts could also have the effect of weakening Abdurrahman's steadfast resolve to hang on to power at all costs. Not only is his strategy all but unworkable now that this vital lever has been removed, but the President may now accept that the gods have spoken.

He may be more prepared to accept a compromise that finally allows the executive powers he has been so resolute in guarding to be handed to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri. Such considerations would be unworthy of mention in most developed countries, but this is Indonesia. Here, mystical powers are perceived to be pervasive. Both Soeharto before him and Abdurrahman have their favorite dukun (shaman possessing mystical powers). Even the leading article in The Jakarta Post two days after Lopa's death used the words "black magic" in referring to the attorney general's passing away.

It may be that the potential conflict that Indonesia faces can be averted thanks to such perceptions. Abdurrahman's confidence may wane and he could instruct his lobbyists to accept the best offer going. Lopa's final gift to the nation could be in helping the President to realize the futility of further fighting and sparing Indonesians the prospect of the President turning his threats of a state of emergency, possible disintegration and other "dire consequences" into reality.

Of course, none of the country's fundamental problems will have been resolved. But at least Indonesia will have an opportunity to move on without tearing itself apart in the process. That would be a small victory for Indonesia's painful transition. We hope that President Abdurrahman is listening to the gods ... and to his loyal combatant Baharuddin Lopa?

The writer is managing editor of the Van Zorge Report, published by the Jakarta-based political risk consultancy firm Van Zorge Heffernan & Associates.