Lopa: The gods have spoken?<\/p>\n
By Peter Milne<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): The sad and totally unexpected death of recently
\nappointed Attorney General Baharuddin Lopa is a devastating blow
\nto President Abdurrahman Wahid's strategy of keeping his
\npolitical opponents at bay and surviving beyond August.<\/p>\n
Lopa was one of the most widely respected Indonesian
\npoliticians because of his integrity and courage in fearlessly
\ntaking on some of the more daunting and powerful corruptors in
\nthe land. Whether or not his latest investigations into three
\nlegislators, Arifin Panigoro (Indonesian Democratic Party of
\nStruggle), Akbar Tandjung (Golkar) and Nurdin Halid (Golkar) were
\npolitically motivated or not, the heat is now off Abdurrahman's
\nenemies.<\/p>\n
Lopa will be almost impossible to replace, certainly within a
\ntime frame that would allow the President to continue with the
\nimplementation of his previous strategy. Not only does the loss
\nof Lopa throw that set of options for survival into disarray, it
\ncomes just one day after Abdurrahman revealed to a gathering of
\nsenior military officers from the Institute of National
\nResilience (Lemhannas) that he had "protested to God" about the
\nunfairness of his predicament.<\/p>\n
In what remains a highly superstitious nation, many
\nIndonesians, probably including Abdurrahman himself, will see the
\nuntimely death of Lopa as an irrefutable sign that the gods are
\nno longer backing Abdurrahman. This "sign" comes just one week
\nafter similar connections were also made to the mechanical
\ntrouble that caused the president's plane to touch down in Darwin
\ninstead of Sydney on his recent trip to Australia. Regardless of
\nthe logic or validity of such perceptions, they are nonetheless
\nof great relevance in an Indonesian context.<\/p>\n
While the loss of Lopa is undoubtedly a tragedy for Indonesia,
\ngiven the dearth of such public figures able to put the country's
\ninterests so clearly beyond their own, there may be one silver
\nlining. Bearing in mind the Indonesian cultural perspective, the
\ncrucial nature and timing of Lopa's disappearance from the scene
\nmay have a profound effect on the President's approach to the
\nlooming confrontation with the People's Consultative Assembly,
\nnow just three weeks away.<\/p>\n
While the loss of Lopa certainly removes from the arena one of
\nIndonesia's best sons, the message it imparts could also have the
\neffect of weakening Abdurrahman's steadfast resolve to hang on to
\npower at all costs. Not only is his strategy all but unworkable
\nnow that this vital lever has been removed, but the President may
\nnow accept that the gods have spoken.<\/p>\n
He may be more prepared to accept a compromise that finally
\nallows the executive powers he has been so resolute in guarding
\nto be handed to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri. Such
\nconsiderations would be unworthy of mention in most developed
\ncountries, but this is Indonesia. Here, mystical powers are
\nperceived to be pervasive. Both Soeharto before him and
\nAbdurrahman have their favorite dukun (shaman possessing mystical
\npowers). Even the leading article in The Jakarta Post two days
\nafter Lopa's death used the words "black magic" in referring to
\nthe attorney general's passing away.<\/p>\n
It may be that the potential conflict that Indonesia faces can
\nbe averted thanks to such perceptions. Abdurrahman's confidence
\nmay wane and he could instruct his lobbyists to accept the best
\noffer going. Lopa's final gift to the nation could be in helping
\nthe President to realize the futility of further fighting and
\nsparing Indonesians the prospect of the President turning his
\nthreats of a state of emergency, possible disintegration and
\nother "dire consequences" into reality.<\/p>\n
Of course, none of the country's fundamental problems will
\nhave been resolved. But at least Indonesia will have an
\nopportunity to move on without tearing itself apart in the
\nprocess. That would be a small victory for Indonesia's painful
\ntransition. We hope that President Abdurrahman is listening to
\nthe gods ... and to his loyal combatant Baharuddin Lopa?<\/p>\n
The writer is managing editor of the Van Zorge Report,
\npublished by the Jakarta-based political risk consultancy firm
\nVan Zorge Heffernan & Associates.<\/p>",
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