Leveraging Geopolitical Volatility, Bitcoin Breaks Through the Storm
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The world has been forced to hold its breath since mid-February 2026. This was triggered by a large-scale military operation between the United States-Israel and Iran, causing waves of panic across global financial markets.
As the world’s largest cryptocurrency asset, Bitcoin was not spared from the blow. Within days, Bitcoin’s price fell from around US$80,000 to the US$62,900-US$63,000 level, the lowest in months.
However, what happened afterwards is far more interesting to observe. As soon as de-escalation signals emerged, Bitcoin recorded a V-shaped recovery, surging more than 17% in several trading sessions.
Bitcoin’s price then broke through the psychological US$70,000 level again and, as of 20 March 2026, was trading at US$74,200. For long-term investors who consistently practise Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA), that panic moment was actually the best buying point.
War and Bitcoin Price: A Pattern That Always Repeats
Every time a large-scale armed conflict erupts, the crypto market reacts with an almost identical pattern: sell first, ask questions later. This is not a weakness of Bitcoin, but rather a reflection of its nature as a market that operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week, without circuit breakers like conventional stock exchanges.
Data from the past few years shows this consistent pattern. When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in February 2022, Bitcoin corrected sharply, but then became one of the assets with the strongest recovery among digital assets. Similarly, when the Israel-Gaza conflict occurred in October 2023, Bitcoin managed to record a gain of more than 60% in the following three months.
The difference in the 2026 cycle from previous ones is the increasingly shorter recovery speed. This is concrete evidence that the Bitcoin investor base is becoming more mature, with the presence of major financial institutions that actually use correction moments for accumulation.
Ethereum and Major Altcoins: Deeper Corrections, Greater Potential
If Bitcoin is “digital gold”, then Ethereum is the “digital economic engine” and in turbulent market conditions, Ethereum tends to move more volatilely. When the “Liberation Day” tariff shock hit in April 2025, Ethereum recorded the largest drop in three days since the end of 2022. Similarly, when the February 2026 military conflict erupted, ETH was dragged down deeper than Bitcoin.
However, the medium-term macro perspective for Ethereum remains very promising. The approval of the Ethereum ETF in 2025 opened the door for a new wave of institutional capital. Inflow data shows significant figures, strengthening Ethereum’s demand foundation far beyond previous cycles. For investors brave enough to enter during corrections and hold positions, Ethereum has historically delivered extraordinary returns.
For large-cap altcoins like Solana and BNB, the same principle applies: higher volatility during uncertainty, but recovery follows Bitcoin’s trajectory. Bitcoin’s dominance holding above 60% throughout 2025 shows the market is still oriented towards quality during critical situations, which benefits long-term holders.
“Digital Gold” vs “Technology Asset”: How Bitcoin Should Be Read?
One of the most interesting debates arising from the 2026 crisis is about Bitcoin’s identity. Analysts from various research institutions note a new phenomenon: Bitcoin is increasingly moving in line with the Nasdaq index movements, not with gold. Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq was recorded above 0.75 throughout the first quarter of 2026.
In the end, this shows a new framing that is very relevant for investors, namely gold is a refuge from war. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is a place to capture profits from peace and economic recovery. When conflict de-escalation occurs and the monetary easing cycle begins, Bitcoin has historically been one of the assets with the best performance, far surpassing gold, bonds, or blue-chip stocks.
This context is important: if you buy Bitcoin when the conflict is heating up and prices are under pressure, you are essentially positioning yourself to harvest in the recovery phase that always comes afterwards.
Bitcoin Price Outlook 2026: Towards a Stronger Rebound
Although short-term pressures still loom, several bullish catalysts are lining up at the door. First, peace negotiations on various conflict fronts continue to progress. Every advancement in the de-escalation process has the potential to trigger a strong buying wave from investors who have been holding back so far.
Second, monetary policy expectations are shifting in a favourable direction. The latest data shows the market beginning to anticipate the possibility of interest rate cuts by The Fed in the second half of 2026, a condition that has historically been the most effective fuel for Bitcoin rallies.
Third, technical analysis shows Bitcoin is still within a larger bull cycle. Bitcoin once hit an all-time high of $126,100 at the end of 2025 before correcting. Strong support levels are in the $73,700-$76,500 range, and if those levels are successfully held, the next technical target points back to all-time highs.
DCA Bitcoin Amid War: A Proven Profitable Strategy
This is where all the data above finds its most concrete relevance. Dollar-Cost Averaging, a strategy of investing regularly with a fixed amount regardless of the current price condition, is the most powerful weapon retail investors have in facing crypto volatility.
The logic is simple: when Bitcoin’s price is under pressure due to war panic, every rupiah you invest buys more units of Bitcoin. When the market recovers—and based on all historical data, the market always recovers—the average purchase price that is lower becomes a real competitive advantage.
If investors remain consistent