Lebaran mudik traffic peak in 2026 expected on 16 and 18 March
Indonesia’s Minister of Transportation, Dudy Purwagandhi, estimates that the peak of Lebaran 1447 Hijriah/2026 mudik traffic will occur on 16 March and 18 March 2026, based on simulations of population movements.
‘From our simulations, there are two dates when congestion is expected to peak: 16 March, Monday, and 18 March (Wednesday),’ Dudy said in Jakarta on Friday night (6 March).
To curb potential traffic congestion, the government has proposed a work-from-anywhere (WFA) policy, which has received presidential approval. The policy is planned to apply for five days during the mudik and balik periods to distribute movements so they are not concentrated on a single date.
During the mudik period, WFA is proposed to apply on 16 and 17 March, giving people flexibility to travel before the peak. For the balik (return) period, WFA is planned for 25, 26 and 27 March, after the Idul Fitri holidays.
According to Dudy, private vehicles remain the dominant mode of transport during the mudik season, especially private cars, motorcycles, and buses. Based on the ministry’s simulations, movement on 16 March is projected to reach around 21.2 million people.
On 18 March, the number of journeys is projected to rise to around 22 million, potentially making it one of the peak mudik points. With the WFA policy, the government hopes to curb the number of journeys.
Movement on 16 March is expected to fall to around 18 to 18.9 million people, while on 18 March it is projected to decrease to about 15.6 million.
The Ministry of Transport also expects increased movement from 13 March. Initially the number of journeys on that date was projected at around 4.4 million, but with WFA, the figure is expected to rise to around eight to nearly nine million journeys.
Overall, total movement during the Lebaran mudik period in 2026 is projected to reach 143.9 million people, slightly below the previous year’s 146.4 million (down around 1.7%).
The projection comes from a government survey to map potential mobility and to prepare national transport infrastructure and facilities during the Lebaran period. The survey was conducted by the Ministry of Transportation in collaboration with LAPI ITB (Institute of Technology Bandung’s Applied Research and Industry Affiliate Institute), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), and the Ministry of Communications and Digital (Komdigi). (Ant/E-3)
Pelni estimates that the peak mudik for Lebaran 2026 will occur on 18 March 2026 (or H-3 of Lebaran 2025), while the peak balik is on 2 April 2026.
BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani notes that rainfall in March 2026 and the Lebaran mudik season remains high.
Peak mudik for Natal 2025 and New Year 2026 or Nataru at Adisucipto Airport is predicted to occur on 21 December 2025. The Ministry of Transportation predicts the Nataru peak on Wednesday 24 December 2025.
There is still 50% or 1.1 million mudik vehicles that have not yet returned to Jakarta and its surroundings.
The Lebaran 2026 mudik peak is expected to occur twice. To anticipate the surge, Central Java Police have urged people to plan their trips.