Latest! IMF Projects Indonesia's Economy Could Grow 5% in 2026

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2026 edition, has cut its forecast for Indonesia’s economic growth to 5% for this year. The previous projection in the WEO January 2026 edition was still at 5.1%.

Meanwhile, the IMF is maintaining its projection for Indonesia’s economic growth at 5.1% in 2027. This downward projection for Indonesia mirrors the global economic outlook, which is plagued by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

For Indonesia, the IMF estimates that inflation will also rise to 3% this year. However, inflation will slow to 2.6% in 2027.

“After facing higher trade barriers and increased uncertainty last year, global activity is now confronting a major test due to the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” the IMF states in its report, quoted on Wednesday (15/4/2026).

Meanwhile, the global economy is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The IMF reveals that this is the weakest growth compared to the average of 3.4% in 2024-2025.

In fact, the IMF claims that this growth rate is the lowest in the last 20 years (2000-2019), which averaged 3.7%. The war is a burden in the downward revision of the global economy.

Furthermore, global inflation is expected to rise to 4.4% in 2026 and decline to 3.7% in 2027, marking an upward revision for both years.