Labor condition likely to worsen in 1999: Observers

Labor condition likely to worsen in 1999: Observers

By Ridwan Max Sijabat

JAKARTA (JP): Observers predicted on Monday that labor
conditions would worsen next year due to the prolonged economic
and political crises, warning that an unemployment rate of 38
million out of the total work force of 90 million represented a
ticking time bomb.

Datuk Bagindo of the Federation of All Indonesian Workers
Union and House of Representatives legislator Ismoe Handoko
shared the dire outlook, with Ismoe raising alarms over possible
"disintegration and social revolution".

But Minister of Manpower Fahmi Idris was optimistic that the
high unemployment rate could be mitigated by increasing the
export of labor.

Speaking separately, Fahmi said the government would fight to
reduce the unemployment rate to "between 10 and 15 million from
the current 20 million."

Datuk insisted that around 38 million Indonesians will have
lost their jobs by the end of the 1998/1999 fiscal year in March
because of continued dismissals by troubled companies. Included
in this figure were 5 million new graduates and school dropouts
who could not find jobs.

"We are very pessimistic about labor conditions next year
because of the poor economic condition this year and the
political uncertainty in the coming months before the general
election in June," he said.

He linked the economic growth of minus 15 percent and the
inflation rate of 75 percent with the dismissal of 15 million
workers over 1998. He did not believe there would be changes in
the business climate and labor condition next year.

"If the government is honest, the economic growth this year is
far below minus 15 percent and the inflation rate has reached 400
percent," he said, adding that more than 50 percent, or 110
million, Indonesians are now living in poverty.

High unemployment rates combined with political uncertainty
are a time bomb that could explode in the near future, he said.

"Violence, looting, robberies and other crimes will be
prevalent in all parts of the country, especially in densely-
populated Java," he said.

Ismoe also expressed concern over the political situation.

"More and more people can no longer eat three times a day
because they lost their jobs, while those in the political elite
are busy taking care of their own interests, and there are no
signs the economic crisis will abate in the coming months," he
said.

"Under these negative changes in society, crimes, looting,
violence and rioting linked to religious and ethnic group
affiliations will likely be rampant. It is probable that the
reform movement will turn into a social revolution," he said.

Optimism

Fahmi expressed his optimism that the labor situation would
improve in the coming year because of some expected economic
improvements.

"Despite poor economic conditions, the government is
optimistic that the economy will grow from the current minus 15
percent to minus 5 percent in the coming year and the inflation
rate will be maintained at a rate of less than 20 percent," he
said.

He said the government is determined to reduce the
unemployment rate to between 10 million and 15 million from the
current 20 million.

Besides "expanding job opportunities at home", the government
would encourage the export of labor to ease the unemployment
problem.

"The labor export program will continue, although it is not
now a strategic way to solve the unemployment problem," he said.

Ismoe concurred on this matter, and said Indonesia should
accelerate its efforts to promote cooperation with other
countries, especially those in the Middle East, so they would be
willing to open their markets to Indonesian workers.

"Many countries have opened their labor markets to Indonesian
workers but the government has been slow in its response," he
said.

He said that he recently visited Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab
Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and found the countries eager to
employ more semi-skilled and skilled workers from Indonesia.

He added that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should also help
by using its diplomatic relations to seek more job opportunities
for dismissed Indonesian workers.

Both Ismoe and Datuk urged the government to carry out the
social safety net program to employ as many dismissed workers as
possible.

"Workers need no rulings, ILO (International Labor
Organization) Conventions or advice from the government. They
need jobs and money to survive the economic hardships," Ismoe
said.

Datuk hailed the government's plan to provide Rp 17 trillion
to finance labor-intensive projects to help jobless people in the
coming year.

"We want the social aid to trickle down to all those who are
waiting for it," he said.