KL between rock and hard place over polls
KL between rock and hard place over polls
By Nelson Graves
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): A gloomy stock market and rumblings
within his coalition may be giving Malaysian Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad ample reason to consider holding elections later
rather than sooner.
The conventional wisdom until recently was that Asia's longest
serving elected leader would ride an economic recovery and strike
the opposition in September with snap polls.
Many still expect the unpredictable Mahathir to opt for
September to face what could be his toughest electoral fight
since winning power in 1981.
The 73-year-old veteran could hit the disparate opposition
before they have time to close ranks, and capitalize on a trip
later this month to China seen as an opportunity to please
members of that key ethnic minority back home.
"We are still working on the assumption they will take place
in September," Syed Husin Ali, president of the opposition Parti
Rakyat Malaysia, told Reuters.
The government is expected soon to announce economic data for
the second quarter marking an official end to the deepest
recession since independence in 1957.
But Mahathir and cabinet colleagues have been sending signals
the ground may not yet be fertile.
"There is room for improvement to ensure Barisan Nasional gets
a thumping victory in the election," Deputy Prime Minister
Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said this week.
"Certain divisions need to fine-tune several areas of concern.
But I am not going to reveal what the weaknesses are."
By all accounts, disgruntlement over the sacking and
imprisonment of Mahathir's former deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, must
still be considered a nagging worry for the prime minister's
Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition.
Anwar's sodomy trial began in June and is draging on, keeping
his name and face in the media limelight nearly a year after he
was sacked and four months after he was jailed for corruption.
Fallout from the bitter split between Mahathir and Anwar
continues to settle on the political and economic landscape.
A public rift appeared last week within the women's wing of
Mahathir's United Malays National Organization, showing that the
upheaval stemming from Anwar's humiliation was not over.
Critics of the government say Anwar's associates are being
targeted by investigations into business wrongdoings and will be
punished in an ambitious bank merger plan that would squeeze
dozens of financial institutions into six.
Some Chinese are sore that financial institutions run by that
ethnic group will be subsumed in the merger scheme, lending an
element of race to the controversial exercise. The government
says the plan will balance financial and racial interests.
"A lot of people are banking on the elections being delayed,"
a senior broker said. "The Chinese are pretty upset."
Perhaps more important is the stock market, which despite a
rally on Thursday remained 15 percent below its 1999 peak hit in
early July.
Worries that foreigners might haul money out after Sep. 1 when
a tax on repatriated investments ends have kept shares on the
defensive.
"There is no looming sign of elections," a European diplomat
said. "But we haven't written off September. He's unpredictable."
Some are banking on October on the assumption the Kuala Lumpur
Stock Exchange's main index will have risen by then from its
level of about 720 points on Thursday to at least 820 -- which
earlier this year Mahathir called its fair valuation.
Others say Mahathir will wait until November after he presents
the 2000 budget and a liberal dose of largess.
"It is possible he might call elections later just because of
the budget, hoping for a better recovery in the share market and
that the Anwar case will be over," Syed Husin said.
Most rule out December -- the annual Moslem fasting month
falls then -- and say 2000 would be difficult because some
650,000 new voters join the rolls in January.
"Mahathir knows they are from the younger generation and not
necessarily eager to vote for the Barisan Nasional," a political
analyst said.