KL between rock and hard place over polls<\/p>\n
By Nelson Graves<\/p>\n
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): A gloomy stock market and rumblings
\nwithin his coalition may be giving Malaysian Prime Minister
\nMahathir Mohamad ample reason to consider holding elections later
\nrather than sooner.<\/p>\n
The conventional wisdom until recently was that Asia's longest
\nserving elected leader would ride an economic recovery and strike
\nthe opposition in September with snap polls.<\/p>\n
Many still expect the unpredictable Mahathir to opt for
\nSeptember to face what could be his toughest electoral fight
\nsince winning power in 1981.<\/p>\n
The 73-year-old veteran could hit the disparate opposition
\nbefore they have time to close ranks, and capitalize on a trip
\nlater this month to China seen as an opportunity to please
\nmembers of that key ethnic minority back home.<\/p>\n
"We are still working on the assumption they will take place
\nin September," Syed Husin Ali, president of the opposition Parti
\nRakyat Malaysia, told Reuters.<\/p>\n
The government is expected soon to announce economic data for
\nthe second quarter marking an official end to the deepest
\nrecession since independence in 1957.<\/p>\n
But Mahathir and cabinet colleagues have been sending signals
\nthe ground may not yet be fertile.<\/p>\n
"There is room for improvement to ensure Barisan Nasional gets
\na thumping victory in the election," Deputy Prime Minister
\nAbdullah Ahmad Badawi said this week.<\/p>\n
"Certain divisions need to fine-tune several areas of concern.
\nBut I am not going to reveal what the weaknesses are."<\/p>\n
By all accounts, disgruntlement over the sacking and
\nimprisonment of Mahathir's former deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, must
\nstill be considered a nagging worry for the prime minister's
\nBarisan Nasional (National Front) coalition.<\/p>\n
Anwar's sodomy trial began in June and is draging on, keeping
\nhis name and face in the media limelight nearly a year after he
\nwas sacked and four months after he was jailed for corruption.<\/p>\n
Fallout from the bitter split between Mahathir and Anwar
\ncontinues to settle on the political and economic landscape.<\/p>\n
A public rift appeared last week within the women's wing of
\nMahathir's United Malays National Organization, showing that the
\nupheaval stemming from Anwar's humiliation was not over.<\/p>\n
Critics of the government say Anwar's associates are being
\ntargeted by investigations into business wrongdoings and will be
\npunished in an ambitious bank merger plan that would squeeze
\ndozens of financial institutions into six.<\/p>\n
Some Chinese are sore that financial institutions run by that
\nethnic group will be subsumed in the merger scheme, lending an
\nelement of race to the controversial exercise. The government
\nsays the plan will balance financial and racial interests.<\/p>\n
"A lot of people are banking on the elections being delayed,"
\na senior broker said. "The Chinese are pretty upset."<\/p>\n
Perhaps more important is the stock market, which despite a
\nrally on Thursday remained 15 percent below its 1999 peak hit in
\nearly July.<\/p>\n
Worries that foreigners might haul money out after Sep. 1 when
\na tax on repatriated investments ends have kept shares on the
\ndefensive.<\/p>\n
"There is no looming sign of elections," a European diplomat
\nsaid. "But we haven't written off September. He's unpredictable."<\/p>\n
Some are banking on October on the assumption the Kuala Lumpur
\nStock Exchange's main index will have risen by then from its
\nlevel of about 720 points on Thursday to at least 820 -- which
\nearlier this year Mahathir called its fair valuation.<\/p>\n
Others say Mahathir will wait until November after he presents
\nthe 2000 budget and a liberal dose of largess.<\/p>\n
"It is possible he might call elections later just because of
\nthe budget, hoping for a better recovery in the share market and
\nthat the Anwar case will be over," Syed Husin said.<\/p>\n
Most rule out December -- the annual Moslem fasting month
\nfalls then -- and say 2000 would be difficult because some
\n650,000 new voters join the rolls in January.<\/p>\n
"Mahathir knows they are from the younger generation and not
\nnecessarily eager to vote for the Barisan Nasional," a political
\nanalyst said.<\/p>",
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