JP/7/SAYID

JP/7/SAYID

Energy: The source of conflicts of nations
The struggle and competition for energy

Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo
Former Governor
National Resilience Institute
(Lemhanas)
Jakarta

There is no life that can be sustained without energy. The
struggle for survival is in fact a competition to capture useful
energy and secure its continued flow. In our universe the sun is
an important source of energy for our planet.

In a book titled Human Origins, George Grant MacCurdy wrote
that the degree of civilization of any epoch, people or group of
peoples, is measured by the ability to utilize energy for human
advancement or needs.

Walter Youngquist writes that the average American uses each
year 8,000 pounds of oil, 4,700 pounds of natural gas, 5,150
pounds of coal, and one-tenth of a pound of uranium.

We are also confronted by inevitable realities. There is the
"first law of thermodynamics" which states that the total energy
content of the universe is constant; it can neither be created
nor destroyed.

But then the "second law on thermodynamics" says that while
energy cannot be created or destroyed, it is continually changing
in form, but always from available energy to unavailable.

If we burn a piece of coal, the energy remains but is
transformed into sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and other gases
that spread into space. While Americans consume 25 percent of the
world's usable energy, it is also contributing to unusable
energy, accounting for about 30 percent of the world's carbon
dioxide emissions.

Although that seems unfair to the rest of the world, one could
assume that the U.S. is not willing to lessen its energy use,
which would mean reducing economic and social activities. It is
more probable that it will always want to advance its
civilization and therefore will require much more energy. Since
the amount of usable energy is decreasing, it is obvious that the
U.S. has to compete with other nations to satisfy its needs.

This is a source of conflicts among nations. This is also the
main reason why advanced nations, the U.S. in particular, is not
interested in the progress of developing nations, unless it
promotes their political or economic interests.

Among the usable energy that is much in demand, oil and
natural gas are the most important. The industrial world is
heavily dependent on oil and natural gas in direct use and
through its transformation into electrical energy. Although there
is much talk about alternative energies, oil and natural gas are
still the most efficient sources of energy. Hydrogen may become
an important alternative, but its economic production is still in
its starting phase and will become viable only around 2050.

The world's security is therefore closely linked to the
production and logistics of oil and natural gas. It is this
reason why the U.S. today is so strongly demanding a regime
change in Iraq. Although the U.S. supported Saddam Hussein with
weapons when he fought Iran, he became a problem for the U.S.
after he attacked Kuwait. Since that time the U.S. wanted him to
be replaced or toppled, to enable its full control of the Middle
East region with all the huge oil and gas reserves.

According the Oil and Gas Journal the world's total reserves
as of Jan. 1, 2001 of crude oil was 1,028.1 billion barrels. More
than half is in the Middle East, or 683.5 billion, with Saudi
Arabia at the top (261.7 billion), Iraq second (112.5 billion),
followed by the United Arab Emirates (97.8 billion), Kuwait (96.5
billion) and Iran (89.7 billion).

The world's natural gas reserves are 5,288.5 trillion cubic
feet of which 1,854.8 trillion cubic feet are in the Middle East.

It is therefore obvious that the Middle East is a very high
priority in U.S. foreign and security policies. This is why the
U.S. is ready to attack Iraq with or without an agreement from
the United Nations. Iran could well be next on the U.S. agenda.
The U.S. is reportedly becoming impatient with the rulers of
Saudi Arabia and it is also not impossible for them to facilitate
a regime change in that country.

Full control of the Middle East would make it easier for the
U.S. to start its actions in Central Asia where there are also
rich deposits, like in Kazakhstan. The U.S. intention to have a
regime change in Afghanistan dates long before the Sept. 11
tragedy. To transport oil and gas from the Caspian Sea region, a
massive pipeline is required from that region to the Indian Ocean
across Afghanistan. It seems that the Taliban government was not
cooperative enough with the U.S. intentions.

With control of Middle Eastern and Central Asian oil and
natural gas the U.S. will be in a strong strategic position to
face future competition with China. Since its economic reforms in
1979, China has made very significant progress, with economic
growth rates of 9 percent or more annually.

There are predictions that China will become a strong
competitor for the U.S. in the near future. But China, with its
1,300 billion people and its development programs, will require
much more energy than it currently has, in particular oil and
gas. Even imports from the surrounding regions will not suffice.

There are already predictions that China will have to depend
very much on oil imports from the Middle East and Central Asia.
It would be very interesting to watch how China will do it
without becoming entangled in security problems with the U.S.