JP/4/Flu

JP/4/Flu

UN urges RI to anticipate bird flu pandemic

Tb. Arie Rukmantara
The Jakarta Post/ Jakarta

The United Nations (UN) urged Indonesia on Monday to prepare a
contingency plan for the possibility of the avian influenza
turning into a global pandemic, a senior UN official said.

UN systems senior coordinator for avian and human influenza
David Nabarro said a pandemic of the H5N1 bird flu strain could
occur at any time and any place and therefore urged the
Indonesian government to start developing a plan for such an
eventuality.

"It will happen at some point. Act as though a pandemic will
start tomorrow. Don't assume we can wait around and not worry
that it won't start in the next six months or one year. If we do,
once it starts it will be too late to prepare and we will all
will be in crisis," he said at a workshop on avian influenza
pandemic contingency plans held at the Office of the Coordinating
Minister for People's Welfare on Monday.

He warned that should there be a pandemic, it would threaten
half the world's population as no medication would be able to
stem the tide of illness.

"At that stage, the virus may be resistant to Tamiflu, so we
can't rely on Tamiflu," he said, referring to the drug currently
given to bird flu patients.

The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain remains a virus essentially
in birds. However, scientists fear that it could mutate into a
form that could pass easily from human to human.

The government said that as of July, the country was in phase
three of the six phases of a flu pandemic, meaning there was the
possibility of facing a new subtype of the virus.

There have been bird flu breakouts in Indonesia, Cambodia,
China, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam since August 2003. To date,
there have been nine confirmed bird flu deaths in Indonesia and
more than 10 million poultry killed.

Nabarro stressed the danger of a poor response to the
possibility of an outbreak and pointed out that the 1918 Spanish
flu was caused by the H1N1 subtype virus and killed 40 million
people across the globe.

"To cope with such a threat, we should prevent, prepare and
respond," he said.

Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie
said that the government had formulated a plan to control avian
influenza and to cope with a possible flu pandemic.

"Among other things, in the near future we will set up an
integrated and autonomous organization to do tangible work to
prevent and cope with any flu pandemic," he said.

The "National Strategic Plan to Control Avian Influenza and
Preparedness to Face a Influenza Pandemic, 2006-2008" proposal
says the government will introduce more than a dozen strategies
to control the bird flu, including organizing mass culls and
poultry vaccinations as well as increasing the stockpile of
antiviral drugs and organizing research on bird flu vaccines.

Should a pandemic occur, the government proposal says it will
isolate areas in which 80 percent of the population is infected
and will mobilize manpower, including soldiers and police
officers, to help limit the pandemic spread.

However, Aburizal said he did not know how much money would be
needed to finance the implementation of the plan.

"All we have at present is US$150 million, which was agreed
upon during the last WHO meeting in Geneva, and the government
will add another $10 to $20 million," he said, adding that
international aid would be needed to support the government's
drive.

Deputy to the State Minister of National Development Planning
Dedi M. Masykur Riyadi, whose office drafted the proposal, said
should all of the strategies be implemented, the government would
need about Rp 15.7 trillion ($1.5 billion) from 2006 to 2008.