JP Morgan Reveals Facts: Indonesia the Most Resilient Country Against Energy Crises

Global oil and gas shocks stemming from Middle East conflicts are forcing many countries to reassess their energy resilience. Several nations are deemed highly vulnerable to prolonged supply crises, but Indonesia is assessed as having a sufficiently robust buffer.

The conflict in the Middle East, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has demonstrated that reliance on energy imports carries high risks. The Strait of Hormuz was officially reopened on Friday night (17/4/2026), but future risks remain.

Countries with domestic energy sources, diversified electricity mixes, and green transitions will be far more resilient to subsequent upheavals.

JP Morgan, the US-based financial services giant, in its report Pandora’s Box: the global energy shock of 2026, maps out the 52 largest final energy-consuming countries worldwide, representing 82% of global energy consumption.

In this study, major producer nations such as Iran, Qatar, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates are excluded from the list due to substantial subsidies from domestic production.

The primary focus of this study is how sensitive a country is to spikes in oil and gas prices, and how strong its buffers are through domestic gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear energy.

The study employs several parameters, including useful final energy (EJ), the extent of oil and gas imports from the Strait of Hormuz, the scale of oil import share relative to primary energy, oil consumption and gas import share relative to primary energy, domestic coal, nuclear, and renewable shares relative to useful final energy, total protection factor, and oil concentration for road transport as a share of primary energy.

Who Is Most Vulnerable?

Countries deemed most exposed to global energy shocks include Italy, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Spain, and the Netherlands.

Many of these countries are heavily reliant on oil and gas imports, particularly from the Gulf region.

Interestingly, China is considered relatively well-protected. Its heavy dependence on domestic coal and internal gas production makes the Middle Kingdom far stronger than many anticipated.

This demonstrates that energy diversification is the primary weapon against global volatility. Other countries benefiting similarly include India, South Africa, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Several countries also have additional protection from nuclear energy sources, including France, Sweden, Switzerland, and the Czech Republic.

Meanwhile, countries with high renewable energy mixes are advantaged, such as Brazil, Austria, and Portugal.

Where Does Indonesia Stand?

Indonesia is assessed as one of the countries relatively more resilient to global energy shocks, particularly when oil and gas prices surge due to wars, geopolitical conflicts, or worldwide supply disruptions. In the calculation of total protection factors—namely, the portion of useful final energy less exposed to global oil and gas price shocks—Indonesia ranks second, trailing only South Africa.

If considering only the combination of low oil/gas import dependence and high resilience, Indonesia ranks third.

Indonesia benefits from its large domestic coal production. In situations where oil and gas prices spike, countries with internal coal supplies are more resistant to energy cost shocks.

As a note, Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal and the 13th largest producer of natural gas. Indonesia is one of the world’s key natural gas producers, ranking 13th globally in 2024 with production of around 2.465 billion cubic metres. This position places Indonesia as a mid-tier player but strategically important in Southeast Asia.

In the global energy sensitivity mapping, Indonesia records an Insulation Factor of 77%, one of the highest in the world. This means that much of the nation’s energy needs can still be supported by domestic sources, so the impact of global price surges does not hit the domestic economy as hard as in other countries.

Compare this to countries like Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, which are highly dependent on energy imports. When oil and LNG prices surge, their electricity, industrial, and transportation costs can be affected more rapidly.

Coal remains the backbone of the national electricity generation.

This means that when oil and gas prices rise sharply, electricity tariffs in Indonesia do not automatically surge as high as in countries reliant on imported LNG.

Although it still imports LPG and fuel oil, Indonesia maintains reserves and domestic natural gas production. This domestic gas supply serves as a crucial buffer for industry and power generation.

Indonesia does still import oil, but its dependence is not as extreme as in countries like Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Those countries rely almost entirely on imported primary energy.

Indonesia’s energy mix is relatively more diverse, making a shock to one commodity less likely to disrupt the entire national energy system. In addition to coal, Indonesia relies on primary energy from hydropower, geothermal, and biodiesel.

With an economy underpinned by 56% domestic consumption, Indonesia has a sufficient growth buffer.

This contrasts with countries heavily reliant on manufacturing exports, such as South Korea and Taiwan.

The government is also equipped with intervention instruments to mitigate the impact of global energy surges, in the form of fuel and electricity subsidies, as well as DMO (Domestic Market Obligation) policies for coal. Through these mechanisms, global price volatility is not directly passed on to the public.

Although relatively resilient, Indonesia still has several weak points. Domestic oil production continues to decline, while consumption rises. If not controlled, this could pose challenges.