JCI Weakens to 7,020 as Oil Rally and War Risks Trigger Risk-Off Mood
JCI Weakens to 7,020 as Oil Rally, War Risks Trigger Risk-Off Mood
Jakarta. Indonesia’s benchmark index extended its slide early Monday as escalating US–Iran tensions and surging energy prices kept investors on edge, with markets bracing for signals from the Federal Reserve.
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell 1.1% or 77 points to 7,020, hovering near its intraday low as risk appetite weakened.
The index moved within a range of 6,955 to 7,024 in the first 15 minutes of trading. Data from RTI showed 3.2 billion shares traded with a turnover of Rp 2.3 trillion ($135.41 million) across 285,000 transactions, with 136 stocks rising, 464 declining, and 123 unchanged.
Equity Analyst at Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), Imam Gunadi, said the market remains overshadowed by unresolved tensions between the United States and Iran, with no clear signs of de-escalation.
“The deadlock in negotiations means any development, whether political statements or military movements, could become a primary market driver,” Imam said in a Monday research note. He added that the spike in energy prices has heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical risks, prompting investors to adopt a cautious stance.
“This condition is encouraging investors to take a wait-and-see approach while assessing further risks to global inflation and energy supply chain stability,” he said.
Market focus early this week is on remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on March 30, which are seen as key to gauging the direction of US monetary policy amid rising inflationary pressures driven by higher energy prices.
“Markets will be looking for signals on whether the Fed will remain cautious or open the door to further tightening, which could strengthen the US dollar and pressure risk assets, including emerging markets like Indonesia,” Imam said.
Separately, Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia noted that global sentiment remains dominated by high uncertainty, with markets heavily driven by headlines.
“Donald Trump’s strike postponement failed to provide relief because escalation risks remain high, including the potential deployment of an additional 10,000 US troops. Pakistan has emerged as a mediator with a 15-point peace proposal, while Iran has offered limited signals, such as allowing 20 ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but continues to reject US proposals,” the brokerage said.
The conflict has now entered its fifth week, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed to tankers and attacks on energy infrastructure ongoing.
From the domestic side, markets are awaiting two key data releases on April 1: the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and March inflation. The PMI will reflect manufacturing resilience amid global pressures, while inflation will guide expectations for Bank Indonesia’s policy direction.
With rising energy prices posing risks of imported inflation, investors will be closely watching whether domestic inflation remains within target or begins to accelerate.
Iran has granted permission for two Pertamina tankers, Pertamina Pride and Gamsunoro, to exit the Strait of Hormuz following intensive communication with the Indonesian government. However, both vessels are still awaiting technical readiness, including insurance and crew clearance, before departure.
“With a capacity of about 2–2.5 million barrels, equivalent to only around 1–1.5 days of national fuel demand, this incident underscores the fragility of Indonesia’s energy security. A single tanker shipment represents only a small portion of the daily supply chain, meaning prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains a direct risk to domestic supply stability,” Kiwoom said.
On Wall Street, US stocks extended losses on Friday, marking a fifth consecutive weekly decline, the longest streak in nearly four years.
The S&P 500 dropped 1.7%, recording its worst week since the Iran conflict began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 793 points (1.7%), slipping more than 10% from its recent peak, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.1%.
Oil prices continued to climb amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Iran showed no signs of backing down, while Israel signaled it could escalate and expand attacks.
“The diplomatic dissonance this week between the US and Iran dismayed investors,” said Doug Beath global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute as cited by AP. “By the end of the week, risk appetite could not withstand the fog of war.”
“Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets,” said Jim Bianco. “Only if the Iranians say the talks are going well will it impact markets.”
Strategists at Macquarie warned that oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if the conflict persists through June, far exceeding the previous record of just above $147 set in 2008.
As of 9:14 a.m. Jakarta time on March 30, Brent crude stood at $116 per barrel, according to Trading Economics data.
Across Asia, markets also came under pressure on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 4.58% to 50,934, South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.52% to 5,247, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.66% to 24,538, and China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.78% to 3,882.
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