JCI Weakens Following Asian Markets as Investors Avoid Risky Assets

Kiwoom Research warns investors to exercise caution and adopt a wait-and-see stance pending developments in the US-Iran war, as well as US payroll data, Indonesian inflation data, and the government’s upcoming fuel crisis risk mitigation decisions this week.

Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) moved lower on Monday morning, following the weakening of stock markets in the Asian region, as investors avoided risky assets due to uncertainty over the direction of the conflict between the United States (US) and Iran.

The JCI opened down 76.53 points or 1.08 percent to 7,020.53. Meanwhile, the LQ45 index of 45 leading stocks fell 11.00 points or 1.53 percent to 707.96.

“Kiwoom Research reminds investors to hold back more and wait and see for developments in the US-Iran war, as well as US payroll data and Indonesian inflation data, along with the government’s fuel crisis risk mitigation decisions set to be released this week,” said Head of Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, Liza Camelia Suryanata, in her analysis in Jakarta on Monday.

From abroad, Liza said sentiment remains dominated by high uncertainty, with market movements very headline-driven. The delay in attacks by US President Donald Trump failed to provide relief as escalation risks remain high, including the potential addition of 10,000 US troops.

Pakistan has emerged as a mediator with a 15-point peace proposal, while Iran has given limited signals, such as permitting 20 ships to pass through Hormuz but rejecting the US proposal.

The current conflict is entering its fifth week, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most tankers, and attacks on energy infrastructure continue.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is pushing for the formation of the Hormuz Security Force but faces resistance from US allies and potential vetoes from Russia and China. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is diverting exports via the Red Sea but has not yet been able to replace global supply disruptions.

From the US, political pressure is mounting with over 3,000 “No Kings” demonstration points involving 9 million people protesting Trump’s policies, including the Iran war and mass deportations, adding layers of risk to future policy stability.

“In this situation, the market faces the reality that almost no asset class is truly safe; even safe havens like US Treasuries, the Japanese Yen, and gold have failed to provide protection, thus driving investors to aggressively reduce risk exposure,” said Liza.

Oil prices remain high amid global supply disruptions, with Brent and WTI holding above $100 per barrel. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried around 15-20 million barrels per day, is the main factor behind the price surge.

Mitigation efforts such as optimising Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline at 7 million barrels per day and increasing exports through Yanbu only cover a small portion of the disruptions.

According to UBS, in an extreme scenario, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel, potentially triggering global inflation above 4 percent and even pushing the US and Europe into recession.

Domestically, Iran has finally granted permission for two Pertamina tankers (Pertamina Pride and Gamsunoro) to exit the Strait of Hormuz following intensive communication with the Indonesian government, though they are still awaiting technical readiness such as insurance and crew before sailing.

With a capacity of around 2-2.5 million barrels, equivalent to roughly 1-1.5 days of national fuel needs. However, this incident underscores the fragility of Indonesia’s energy resilience, where one tanker shipment plays only a small role in the daily supply chain, so prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz remain a direct risk to domestic supply stability.

On Friday (27/03) last week, European stock markets closed uniformly lower, including the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.56 percent, the UK FTSE 100 down 0.05 percent, Germany’s DAX down 1.38 percent, and France’s CAC 40 down 0.87 percent.

Wall Street in the US also closed uniformly lower on Friday (27/03), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.73 percent to 45,166.64, the S&P 500 down 1.67 percent to 6,368.85, and the Nasdaq Composite correcting 1.93 percent to 23,132.77.

Regional Asian stock markets this morning include the Nikkei down 2,417.07 points or 4.53 percent to 50,956.00, the Shanghai index down 31.33 points or 0.80 percent to 3,882.40, the Hang Seng down 427.38 points or 1.71 percent to 24,524.50, and the Straits Times down 13.96 points or 0.29 percent to 4,884.22.