JCI Session 1 Narrows Correction, Recovers from Near 2% Drop

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) narrowed its correction at the end of the first trading session today, Monday (30/3/2026). At the close of the first session, the JCI fell 0.38% or -26.66 points to 7,070.4. Earlier, the JCI had dropped nearly 2% to the day’s lowest level of 6,945.5. A total of 453 stocks declined, 252 rose, and 253 remained unchanged. Trading value was subdued at Rp 7.72 trillion, involving 13.47 billion shares in 1.02 million transactions. Citing Refinitiv, four sectors closed in positive territory: energy, technology, utilities, and primary consumer goods. Citing Refinitiv, BBCA remained the biggest drag on the JCI until the end of the first session. BBCA, which corrected by nearly 4%, contributed -23.69 index points. Below it, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bayan Resources (BYAN) contributed -6.29 index points and -5.58 index points, respectively. However, several conglomerate stocks provided support to prevent the JCI from falling further. Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA), which rose 4.9%, contributed 10.88 index points. Followed by DCI Indonesia (DCII), Telkom (TLKM), Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS), and Astra (ASII), contributing 9.47 index points, 7.17 index points, 5.23 index points, and 3.16 index points, respectively. Meanwhile, markets in the Asia-Pacific region were almost all ablaze. Japan’s Nikkei index fell -3.17% and South Korea’s Kospi -3.01%. Then Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.86% and Taiwan’s market -1.25%. In the current conditions, the JCI’s upside room remains very limited due to the absence of strong positive catalysts from the global side. The market is essentially waiting for clear signals such as a ceasefire in the Middle East, the reopening of major energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices dropping back below US$80 per barrel. As long as those factors have not occurred, the JCI will tend to struggle for a significant rebound because external pressures still dominate. The escalation of the conflict itself is now entering a more complex phase with the emergence of double chokepoint risks. If previously the market only focused on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, attention is now shifting to Bab el-Mandeb after the Houthi group in Yemen became involved in the conflict. This route is a main connector between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal and covers about 6-12% of global trade flows. If both routes are disrupted simultaneously, around 25-30% of global oil supply could be affected, thereby increasing the risk of global inflation and heightening the possibility of recession. In this scenario, oil prices could remain high (higher for longer). For Indonesia, this condition adds further pressure because high oil prices above the ideal fiscal comfort zone of below US$80 per barrel. Assuming the state budget uses an oil price of US$70 per barrel, every US$10 increase can raise the deficit by around Rp51.8 trillion. If oil prices reach US$100 per barrel, additional energy subsidies are estimated to reach Rp236 trillion, while additional revenue is only around Rp81 trillion, potentially adding to the deficit by up to Rp155 trillion. This fiscal pressure ultimately burdens domestic stock market sentiment as well. On the other hand, global dynamics are also influenced by the Fed’s policies, which are tasked with maintaining inflation and employment but indirectly also play a role in preserving the stability of the financial system that heavily depends on liquidity. Meanwhile, the Israeli military stated it is attacking various targets in Iran’s capital, Tehran. The Iranian government also said energy infrastructure has been damaged, but Iranian media reported that electricity has been restored in most of Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj. A university in the central Iranian city of Isfahan was targeted for the second time this weekend. On the other hand, Israel stated that a fire at an industrial site in the southern part of the country—caused by an Iranian attack—has been brought under control, several hours after previously stating there was a “hazardous materials incident” in the area. Verified photos show a US military jet severely damaged at an airbase in Saudi Arabia. Previously, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament said their forces are “waiting” for the presence of US ground troops to “rain fire on them,” after the US announcement that around 3,500 troops are in the region along with the USS Tripoli warship.