JCI Potentially Volatile Amid Expectations of Fed Remaining Dovish
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) is potentially set to move variably on Tuesday amid market expectations that the US Federal Reserve will remain dovish in the face of uncertainties surrounding the conflict between the US and Iran.
The IHSG opened higher by 31.32 points or 0.44 per cent to 7,122.99. Meanwhile, the LQ45 index of 45 leading stocks rose 3.16 points or 0.44 per cent to 720.65.
“Based on technical analysis, we see the IHSG potentially weakening in a limited manner with support and resistance levels at 7,000-7,240,” said Maximilianus Nico Demus, alias Nico, Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, in his analysis in Jakarta on Tuesday.
From overseas, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that long-term US inflation expectations appear contained, but the Fed continues to closely monitor the impact of the war between the US and Israel with Iran.
Powell’s statement provides reassurance to market participants that inflation may not necessarily rise, thus preventing the Fed from increasing interest rates as previously feared.
On the other hand, the rise in oil prices continues to worry market participants, especially as oil prices have formed new levels, with the upside space reaching 90 per cent as of today.
From a geopolitical perspective, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey have stated that US President Donald Trump must end the conflict. Iran has clearly stated that the demands made on it are excessive and illogical, according to the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Up to today, we have never known who the negotiator is that the US is engaging in discussions regarding those demands,” said Nico.
Meanwhile, Houthi leaders in Yemen are considering more aggressive attacks. War escalation could accelerate rapidly if all parties do not exercise restraint.
Domestically, the government will soon announce a policy package to dampen the impact of global dynamics on the domestic economy. The policies being prepared include limited work-from-home (WFH), budget adjustments, and the implementation of the B-50 programme, which will be explained at a press conference on 31 March 2026.
One option is the implementation of WFH one day per week for civil servants (ASN) and some private sectors to reduce fuel consumption, though it does not apply to service, industrial, and trade sectors.
“WFH can suppress fuel consumption in the short term, but its impact on productivity and supporting sectors (transportation, F&B) needs to be considered,” said Nico.
Meanwhile, the B-50 programme has the potential to reduce energy import dependency, but its implementation requires industrial readiness and raw material supply. Budget adjustments reflect a tightening fiscal space, so government spending ahead is likely to be more selective.
“Overall, this package is defensive to maintain stability, but its effectiveness will greatly depend on execution and future global conditions,” said Nico.
On Monday (30/3/2026) trading, European stock markets uniformly strengthened, including the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.70 per cent, the UK FTSE 100 up 1.61 per cent, the German DAX up 1.18 per cent, and the French CAC up 0.92 per cent.
Meanwhile, the US Wall Street market moved variably on Monday (30/3/2026), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average index up 0.11 per cent closing at 45,216.14, the S&P 500 down 0.39 per cent to 6,343.72, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.78 per cent closing at 25,953.38.
Regional Asian stock markets this morning included the Nikkei down 21.35 points or 0.04 per cent to 51,864.50, the Shanghai index up 21.05 points or 0.54 per cent to 3,944.33, the Hang Seng up 126.71 points or 0.51 per cent to 24,877.50, and the Straits Times up 12.16 points or 0.25 per cent to 4,909.42.