JCI Poised to Strengthen to 9,050: Driving Factors and Risks
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – Deputy Head of Equity Research & Strategy at Mandiri Sekuritas, Kresna Hutabarat, stated that Indonesia’s capital market still has room for continued growth amid intense global uncertainty challenges. He projects that by 2026, the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) could reach the 9,000 level.
“Regarding the JCI target going forward, we are maintaining our target of 9,050 points for the JCI. However, we see potential for a downward revision, considering the margin pressure from increasing macroeconomic volatility and upcoming energy cost burdens,” Kresna said during the Mandiri Macro and Market Brief Quarter II 2026 press conference held online on Monday (11/5/2026).
Kresna explained that external macroeconomic pressures are very strong on the stock market. Additionally, there are many domestic factors that need to be addressed to ensure better stock market performance in the future.
Throughout 2026, Indonesia’s stock market has indeed experienced a decline in performance, reflected in the JCI’s year-to-date correction of around 17-18 per cent. This places Indonesia under significant stock market pressure compared to neighbouring countries that have relatively held up amid heavy outflows of capital.
“We acknowledge that geopolitical conflicts and pressures or surges in global energy prices bring global risks, exerting macroeconomic pressure on the stock market as well as expectations for business growth and issuers in our stock market,” he said.
On the other hand, global capital absorption is still consistently occurring in developed markets such as the US and other stock markets with issuers involved in the artificial intelligence (AI) and technology sectors. This trend is putting pressure on emerging markets like Indonesia.
“So there is indeed a lot of global capital flowing to issuers that are seeing significant profit growth and investment interest, especially in stock markets in the US, Korea, and Taiwan, where AI and technology businesses are achieving superior profit and revenue growth,” he explained.
Furthermore, from the investor trend side, risk aversion or returning funding from rupiah-denominated asset classes to the US dollar—including commodities considered safe havens like gold—has also become a reason why emerging market capital markets are battered by strong selling pressure from foreigners.
“We must note that in the last 1-2 months, the selling pressure in our stock market, which has resulted in our year-to-date stock performance being worse than peers, needs attention. But going forward, we must monitor that risks to issuers’ earnings, especially for the IDX 80 followed by global and domestic investors, must be acknowledged as facing additional pressure, given the transmission from rising energy prices and increases in petrochemical derivatives prices,” he explained.