JCI Opens Weaker, Mining Stocks Still Shadowed by Royalty Sentiment
The movement of the JCI over the next three trading days will be heavily influenced by global geopolitical dynamics and commodity royalty tariff policies.
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) opened weaker on Monday morning, down 9.46 points or about 0.14 percent to the level of 6,959.94.
Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), Hari Rachmansyah, in Jakarta on Monday, assessed that the JCI’s movement over the next three trading days will be greatly influenced by global geopolitical dynamics and commodity royalty tariff policies.
For information, trading this week will be shorter due to the national holiday and joint leave for the Ascension of Jesus Christ on 14-15 May 2026.
“Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his confidence that the Ukraine war will soon end. This statement was made just hours after he delivered a speech affirming Russia’s determination to win during the Victory Day celebration in Moscow, which was more modest compared to previous years,” Hari said in his statement in Jakarta on Monday.
Meanwhile, concerns regarding the potential hantavirus outbreak have so far not significantly disrupted the market. Data from the Kalshi prediction platform shows the probability of a hantavirus outbreak becoming a serious threat this year is only 21 percent. This figure indicates that market participants do not yet consider the issue a significant risk.
On the other hand, global market attention is now focused on the summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the Iran war issue expected to dominate the discussion agenda.
“This situation has the potential to narrow the negotiation space for other crucial issues such as trade tariffs and rare earth supplies, so uncertainty on these two issues is likely to persist in the near term,” Hari explained.
Meanwhile, from the domestic side, there are several agendas and policy developments that market participants need to monitor in the near future.
“The MSCI Indonesia rebalancing scheduled for 12 May 2026 is unlikely to introduce new entrants, but it still has the potential to trigger shifts in stock weights that could affect the overall market direction,” he said.
From the policy side, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) held a hearing session on 8 May 2026 regarding proposals for changes to royalty tariffs for copper, tin, nickel, gold, and silver commodities.
According to Hari, this policy is no longer just discourse because it is targeted to take effect starting in June 2026.
He explained that among all the affected commodities, gold recorded the most significant percentage increase in the royalty tariff at the lower end, reaching 100 percent.
This condition is seen as providing direct pressure amid global gold prices that remain at high levels.
Meanwhile, tin is considered the commodity most severely impacted overall because the tariff increase occurs at both ends of the royalty range.
“What needs further attention is that the pressure on the mining sector does not stop at the royalty increase alone. The discourse on the implementation of export duties and windfall tax currently being studied by the Ministry of Finance adds another layer of uncertainty, particularly for the nickel and coal subsectors, so overall mining sector volatility has the potential to persist in the short term,” he said.
Considering the overall sentiment landscape formed throughout this week, Hari assesses that the JCI movement for the period 11-13 May 2026 has the potential to move mixed with a limited tendency.
The MSCI rebalancing agenda on 12 May is seen as potentially triggering portfolio rotation that creates short-term volatility in large-cap stocks.
At the same time, the shadow of the mineral royalty increase policy targeted to apply starting June 2026, accompanied by discourse on export duties and windfall tax, is expected to continue structurally pressuring mining and energy sector stocks.
With foreign investors still recording net selling and not yet showing convincing reversal signals, index strengthening is seen as highly dependent on the strength of domestic fund flows as well as the ability of big cap stocks outside the mining sector to offset market pressure.
Hari views this condition as making sector selectivity the main key to portfolio navigation this week.
“In this condition, investors are advised to remain selective with a trading-oriented approach, taking advantage of momentum in strong sectors, but still disciplined in risk management, given the still relatively high market volatility and the potential for rapid sentiment changes,” he advised.