JCI Opens Down 0.41% at 7,528 as Market Digests Array of Sentiments

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) opened lower again this morning, Wednesday (22/4/2026). The index opened down 31.04 points or 0.41% to the level of 7,528.34.

280 stocks rose, 73 fell, and 288 were unchanged. The transaction value this morning reached Rp 232.53 billion, involving 391.29 million shares in 48,024 transactions. Market capitalisation also fell to Rp 13,363 trillion.

Market participants will scrutinise a number of market sentiments today, both domestic and international.

Interest rate policy and the impact of the MSCI decision are expected to be the biggest domestic sentiments, while the hearing for the new Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, Kevin Warsh, and developments in the war will be market drivers from abroad.

US President Donald Trump officially extended the ceasefire between the United States and Iran on Tuesday local time. Trump reasoned that the Tehran government is now seriously divided, thus needing additional time to formulate a peace proposal.

Trump stated that the ceasefire, originally ending on Wednesday, will continue until Iranian leaders submit a unified proposal to end the conflict with the US and Israel.

This move comes amid stalled diplomatic channels. Plans for Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Pakistan for the second round of peace negotiations have reportedly been postponed.

Iranian state media Tasnim News Agency also stated that the Tehran delegation refused to attend further negotiations, deeming the US as obstructing the achievement of an agreement.

Tensions have not yet subsided. Adviser to the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, viewed Trump’s decision as merely a ploy to buy time before launching a new attack. He also emphasised that the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports is equivalent to a bombing action and warrants a military response.

For global markets, the main focus is now on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for world oil trade. Iran previously closed access to the strait at the start of the war. Trump stated that the ceasefire can only hold if that shipping lane is fully opened.

Although the war has not ended, Trump’s decision to extend the temporary ceasefire has eased the risk of a new surge in energy prices and global financial market volatility.

Next, Kevin Warsh has just undergone confirmation hearings in the US Senate as the new Federal Reserve (The Fed) Chairman candidate. He affirmed that The Fed will remain independent from the White House if he is selected.

Warsh faced questions on monetary policy, his personal wealth, and his closeness to President Donald Trump. If approved, he would become the richest Fed Chair in history.

Warsh emphasised that he never promised President Trump to cut interest rates if he officially leads the US central bank. This statement was made during the Senate confirmation hearing, as global markets spotlight the future direction of monetary policy in the Land of Uncle Sam.

Warsh said Trump never asked for a commitment on interest rate levels, even though Trump had repeatedly expressed hope that Warsh would lower rates if selected.

Domestically today, Bank Indonesia (BI) will announce its interest rate policy. Market participants expect the central bank to hold its benchmark rate at this meeting.

The consensus gathered by CNBC Indonesia from 14 institutions shows a compact result. All respondents project that BI will again maintain the BI Rate at 4.75% in this RDG meeting.

In BI’s last RDG in March 2026, BI again decided to maintain the BI Rate at 4.75%. This decision marks the sixth time BI has held its benchmark rate consecutively. If maintained again in this April RDG, it would be the seventh in a row.

In its official statement last March, BI affirmed that the decision was aimed at strengthening rupiah exchange rate stability amid deteriorating global conditions due to the war in the Middle East, while also safeguarding inflation targets.

Next, there is sentiment from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), which issued an announcement assessing Indonesia’s capital market reforms on 20 April 2026. This announcement follows up on the previous release on 27 January 2026, when the rebalancing freeze on the Indonesia index was announced.

In the May 2026 index review, MSCI decided to maintain the temporary policy that has been in place for Indonesian securities. This policy includes freezing increases in Foreign Inclusion Factors (FIF) and Number of Shares (NOS), as well as not adding new stocks to the MSCI Investable Market Indexes (IMI).

Additionally, one of MSCI’s steps consistent with its treatment of similarly identified securities in other markets is to remove securities identified by Indonesian authorities as part of the new High Shareholding Concentration (HSC) framework.

MSCI’s decision to execute the removal of HSC issuers in May will trigger measurable foreign portfolio restructuring. The removal of stocks like BREN and DSSA is projected to force the liquidation of passive funds amounting to around Rp 25.5 trillion.

With the JCI currently at the 7,500 level, the absence of buyers in the negotiation market could force significant price corrections for both stocks to find a new equilibrium point.

Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific stock markets opened lower in trading today, Wednesday (22/4/2026), due to rising concerns that the Middle East conflict could drag on, following US President Donald Trump’s extension of the ceasefire with Iran.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 0.41%, while the Topix fell 0.67%. Japan’s exports rose for the seventh consecutive month, recording a trade surplus of 667 billion yen ($4.18 billion) in March, compared to expectations.