Java's 93m voters may determine next president

Java's 93m voters may determine next president

Kurniawan Hari, Jakarta

Out of over 155 million registered voters in the country's first
direct presidential election on Monday morning, some 93 million,
or 60 percent, are in Java. The candidate that conquers the
heavily populated island could well be the next president.

But how to woo voters anywhere depends on campaign
strategists, many of whom can only draw on experiences from past
campaigns, which relied heavily on the rank and file of their
political parties.

However, the parties that garnered the most votes in the
legislative election on April 5 in Java may not automatically be
ensured victory on Monday as voters may choose someone else.

Based on the April's election, the Golkar Party and the
National Awakening Party (PKB), which back the nomination of
Wiranto and his running mate Solahuddin Wahid, control a majority
of the votes in Java.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) led by
incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who is seeking
reelection, would rank second on one of the world's most densely
populated islands.

Support from the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the
Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which combined over a quarter of
Jakartans' votes in the legislative election, is expected to help
the Amien Rais-Siswono Yudohusodo duo win many votes in the
presidential race.

The PKS endorsement, officially announced on June 30, has
raised Amien's popularity ahead of the poll. The party grabbed
8.3 million votes nationwide in the legislative election with PAN
getting 7.3 million votes. Amien also has been endorsed by some
smaller parties who combined for around 6 million votes, as well
as the Muhammadiyah group.

The Wiranto-Solahuddin Wahid duo has a greater chance of
winning if both Golkar and PKB voters are committed to supporting
their party's candidates. Golkar got the most votes in the April
5 election nationwide with 24.4 million votes and PKB placed
third with 11.9 million votes.

Wiranto has support from the National Democratic Unity Party
(PPDK) that garnered 1.3 million votes.

Support from the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) members for the PKB will
likely be split after Megawati picked NU chief Hasyim Muzadi as
her running mate.

Hasyim, it is hoped, could help Megawati's chances on Monday
in addition to her support PDI-P loyalists. PDI-P had finished
second with 21 million votes nationwide.

As for the pair of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla,
their main asset is Susilo's popularity after being forced to
quit Megawati's Cabinet. All recent poll surveys show him as the
runaway frontrunner.

Susilo was nominated by the newly formed Democratic Party that
won 8.4 million votes. He is also supported by the Crescent Star
Party (PBB) and the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI)
which totaled over 4.3 million votes.

Susilo may secure the presidency if it is only popularity that
counts in the poll. However, the political machinery of the
candidates and their financial resources are also crucial
factors.

Political analysts say that voters cannot be categorized as
easily as before.

"People behave with their own intentions, and it is very
different from the will of the political elite," said Fachry Ali,
director of the Institute for the Study and Advancement of
Business Ethics (LSPEU).

Meanwhile, the Hamzah Haz and Agum Gumelar duo is battling to
boost their popularity, although Hamzah's United Development
Party (PPP) gained 9.2 million votes in the April election.

Nevertheless, all five pairs are confident they can qualify
for a run-off on Sept. 20, hoping that their campaigns in Java
would be effective.

Bomer Pasaribu, a member of the Wiranto-Wahid campaign team,
said his presidential candidate had campaigned in 72 locations in
32 provinces.

"Assuming that there will be 120 million valid votes, we are
very optimistic to get between 35 million and 40 million of the
votes," he told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.

Alwi Hamu from the Susilo-Kalla campaign team said they had
recruited many volunteers to help out with the campaign.

"We've also strengthened our campaign team in districts and
villages across Java," he said.

Separately, Bambang Sudibyo from the Amien-Siswono pair said
his team had used radio ads to reach voters in remote areas of
Java.

In the meantime, Megawati's campaign team said it was trying
hard to solicit support from NU members. "We're trying to keep NU
members in support of Hasyim," Megawati's campaign team member
Agus Tjondro said.

In addition, Hamzah-Agum campaign team member Lukman Hakim
Syaifuddin said his side hoped PPP supporters would still vote
for Hamzah.