Java's 93m voters may determine next president

Kurniawan Hari, Jakarta

Out of over 155 million registered voters in the country's first direct presidential election on Monday morning, some 93 million, or 60 percent, are in Java. The candidate that conquers the heavily populated island could well be the next president.

But how to woo voters anywhere depends on campaign strategists, many of whom can only draw on experiences from past campaigns, which relied heavily on the rank and file of their political parties.

However, the parties that garnered the most votes in the legislative election on April 5 in Java may not automatically be ensured victory on Monday as voters may choose someone else.

Based on the April's election, the Golkar Party and the National Awakening Party (PKB), which back the nomination of Wiranto and his running mate Solahuddin Wahid, control a majority of the votes in Java.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) led by incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who is seeking reelection, would rank second on one of the world's most densely populated islands.

Support from the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which combined over a quarter of Jakartans' votes in the legislative election, is expected to help the Amien Rais-Siswono Yudohusodo duo win many votes in the presidential race.

The PKS endorsement, officially announced on June 30, has raised Amien's popularity ahead of the poll. The party grabbed 8.3 million votes nationwide in the legislative election with PAN getting 7.3 million votes. Amien also has been endorsed by some smaller parties who combined for around 6 million votes, as well as the Muhammadiyah group.

The Wiranto-Solahuddin Wahid duo has a greater chance of winning if both Golkar and PKB voters are committed to supporting their party's candidates. Golkar got the most votes in the April 5 election nationwide with 24.4 million votes and PKB placed third with 11.9 million votes.

Wiranto has support from the National Democratic Unity Party (PPDK) that garnered 1.3 million votes.

Support from the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) members for the PKB will likely be split after Megawati picked NU chief Hasyim Muzadi as her running mate.

Hasyim, it is hoped, could help Megawati's chances on Monday in addition to her support PDI-P loyalists. PDI-P had finished second with 21 million votes nationwide.

As for the pair of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla, their main asset is Susilo's popularity after being forced to quit Megawati's Cabinet. All recent poll surveys show him as the runaway frontrunner.

Susilo was nominated by the newly formed Democratic Party that won 8.4 million votes. He is also supported by the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI) which totaled over 4.3 million votes.

Susilo may secure the presidency if it is only popularity that counts in the poll. However, the political machinery of the candidates and their financial resources are also crucial factors.

Political analysts say that voters cannot be categorized as easily as before.

"People behave with their own intentions, and it is very different from the will of the political elite," said Fachry Ali, director of the Institute for the Study and Advancement of Business Ethics (LSPEU).

Meanwhile, the Hamzah Haz and Agum Gumelar duo is battling to boost their popularity, although Hamzah's United Development Party (PPP) gained 9.2 million votes in the April election.

Nevertheless, all five pairs are confident they can qualify for a run-off on Sept. 20, hoping that their campaigns in Java would be effective.

Bomer Pasaribu, a member of the Wiranto-Wahid campaign team, said his presidential candidate had campaigned in 72 locations in 32 provinces.

"Assuming that there will be 120 million valid votes, we are very optimistic to get between 35 million and 40 million of the votes," he told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.

Alwi Hamu from the Susilo-Kalla campaign team said they had recruited many volunteers to help out with the campaign.

"We've also strengthened our campaign team in districts and villages across Java," he said.

Separately, Bambang Sudibyo from the Amien-Siswono pair said his team had used radio ads to reach voters in remote areas of Java.

In the meantime, Megawati's campaign team said it was trying hard to solicit support from NU members. "We're trying to keep NU members in support of Hasyim," Megawati's campaign team member Agus Tjondro said.

In addition, Hamzah-Agum campaign team member Lukman Hakim Syaifuddin said his side hoped PPP supporters would still vote for Hamzah.