Java's 93m voters may determine next president<\/p>\n
Kurniawan Hari, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Out of over 155 million registered voters in the country's first
\ndirect presidential election on Monday morning, some 93 million,
\nor 60 percent, are in Java. The candidate that conquers the
\nheavily populated island could well be the next president.<\/p>\n
But how to woo voters anywhere depends on campaign
\nstrategists, many of whom can only draw on experiences from past
\ncampaigns, which relied heavily on the rank and file of their
\npolitical parties.<\/p>\n
However, the parties that garnered the most votes in the
\nlegislative election on April 5 in Java may not automatically be
\nensured victory on Monday as voters may choose someone else.<\/p>\n
Based on the April's election, the Golkar Party and the
\nNational Awakening Party (PKB), which back the nomination of
\nWiranto and his running mate Solahuddin Wahid, control a majority
\nof the votes in Java.<\/p>\n
The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) led by
\nincumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who is seeking
\nreelection, would rank second on one of the world's most densely
\npopulated islands.<\/p>\n
Support from the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the
\nProsperous Justice Party (PKS), which combined over a quarter of
\nJakartans' votes in the legislative election, is expected to help
\nthe Amien Rais-Siswono Yudohusodo duo win many votes in the
\npresidential race.<\/p>\n
The PKS endorsement, officially announced on June 30, has
\nraised Amien's popularity ahead of the poll. The party grabbed
\n8.3 million votes nationwide in the legislative election with PAN
\ngetting 7.3 million votes. Amien also has been endorsed by some
\nsmaller parties who combined for around 6 million votes, as well
\nas the Muhammadiyah group.<\/p>\n
The Wiranto-Solahuddin Wahid duo has a greater chance of
\nwinning if both Golkar and PKB voters are committed to supporting
\ntheir party's candidates. Golkar got the most votes in the April
\n5 election nationwide with 24.4 million votes and PKB placed
\nthird with 11.9 million votes.<\/p>\n
Wiranto has support from the National Democratic Unity Party
\n(PPDK) that garnered 1.3 million votes.<\/p>\n
Support from the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) members for the PKB will
\nlikely be split after Megawati picked NU chief Hasyim Muzadi as
\nher running mate.<\/p>\n
Hasyim, it is hoped, could help Megawati's chances on Monday
\nin addition to her support PDI-P loyalists. PDI-P had finished
\nsecond with 21 million votes nationwide.<\/p>\n
As for the pair of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla,
\ntheir main asset is Susilo's popularity after being forced to
\nquit Megawati's Cabinet. All recent poll surveys show him as the
\nrunaway frontrunner.<\/p>\n
Susilo was nominated by the newly formed Democratic Party that
\nwon 8.4 million votes. He is also supported by the Crescent Star
\nParty (PBB) and the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI)
\nwhich totaled over 4.3 million votes.<\/p>\n
Susilo may secure the presidency if it is only popularity that
\ncounts in the poll. However, the political machinery of the
\ncandidates and their financial resources are also crucial
\nfactors.<\/p>\n
Political analysts say that voters cannot be categorized as
\neasily as before.<\/p>\n
\"People behave with their own intentions, and it is very
\ndifferent from the will of the political elite,\" said Fachry Ali,
\ndirector of the Institute for the Study and Advancement of
\nBusiness Ethics (LSPEU).<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the Hamzah Haz and Agum Gumelar duo is battling to
\nboost their popularity, although Hamzah's United Development
\nParty (PPP) gained 9.2 million votes in the April election.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, all five pairs are confident they can qualify
\nfor a run-off on Sept. 20, hoping that their campaigns in Java
\nwould be effective.<\/p>\n
Bomer Pasaribu, a member of the Wiranto-Wahid campaign team,
\nsaid his presidential candidate had campaigned in 72 locations in
\n32 provinces.<\/p>\n
\"Assuming that there will be 120 million valid votes, we are
\nvery optimistic to get between 35 million and 40 million of the
\nvotes,\" he told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.<\/p>\n
Alwi Hamu from the Susilo-Kalla campaign team said they had
\nrecruited many volunteers to help out with the campaign.<\/p>\n
\"We've also strengthened our campaign team in districts and
\nvillages across Java,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Separately, Bambang Sudibyo from the Amien-Siswono pair said
\nhis team had used radio ads to reach voters in remote areas of
\nJava.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, Megawati's campaign team said it was trying
\nhard to solicit support from NU members. \"We're trying to keep NU
\nmembers in support of Hasyim,\" Megawati's campaign team member
\nAgus Tjondro said.<\/p>\n
In addition, Hamzah-Agum campaign team member Lukman Hakim
\nSyaifuddin said his side hoped PPP supporters would still vote
\nfor Hamzah.<\/p>",
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